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Tour de France 2025 - Prediction Points Classification

Wednesday 2 July 2025 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Who will win the sprint classification in the Tour de France 2025 according to the computer? In other words: who are the favorites for the green jersey? It is not the first time that hilly qualities are required to make a bid for the green jersey in Paris. Out of the 7 sprint opportunities, the pure sprinters can participate in 4 stages. Moreover, in many 'punch' and 'sprint+' stages, the maximum points can also be achieved (stages 3, 7 and 9 for example). Types like Philipsen and van Aert can both do it, so the chance that it will be between that duo is quite big. The question is whether our Mathieu also has ambitions for the green. The potential is certainly there, we saw that in the Dauphiné.

 

Tour de France 2025 - points for Points GC

Flat stages (stage 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 15, 17 en 21): 
50 – 30 – 20 – 18 – 16 – 14 – 12 – 10 – 8 – 7 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – 2

Hilly stages (etappe 6, 16 en 20): 
30 – 25 – 22 – 19 – 17 – 15 – 13 – 11 – 9 – 7 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – 2

Mountain stages / time-trials (etappe 10, 12, 13, 14, 18 en 19): 
20 – 17 – 15 – 13 – 11 – 10 – 9 – 8 – 7 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – 2 – 1

Intermediate sprints: 
20 – 17 – 15 – 13 – 11 – 10 – 9 – 8 – 7 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – 2 – 1 (not in ITTs)

 

H2H - Points GC Tour de France 2025

Stage with most points for green-jersey competitors

Stage 1: Lille – Lille (184.9 km)

The 2025 Tour de France opens with a stage around Lille, a city known for its cycling history and wide boulevards. After some hills, there is a flat approach of about 45 kilometers back to Lille. Here, the sprinter teams get the chance to organize themselves and put their fast men in position. The final kilometer on the Boulevard Vauban is straight as an arrow, ideal for a mass sprint. There is a good chance that a sprinter will wear the first yellow jersey of this Tour, although the GC riders must remain alert for echelons in the open landscape. The course contains less than 1,000 meters of elevation, giving the sprinters a unique opportunity to immediately take the yellow jersey.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 1

 

Stage 2: Lauwin-Planque – Boulogne-sur-Mer (209.1 km)

The second stage takes the peloton from Lauwin-Planque to the coastal town of Boulogne-sur-Mer. This is a typical transition stage with over 2,100 meters of elevation gain, mainly concentrated in the finale. The route winds through the rolling landscape of Hauts-de-France, where the wind often has free rein. After the last climb, it is still 5.5 kilometers to the finish, with a final kilometer that is slightly uphill at around 5%. This makes it an ideal arrival for attackers and punchers who want to strike in the final kilometers.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 2

 

Stage 3: Valenciennes – Dunkerque (178.3 km)

The third stage is the flattest of the first week and offers a golden opportunity for the sprinters. The route runs from Valenciennes to the coastal city of Dunkirk, on wide and fast roads. The wind can play an important role in this region, especially on the open stretches towards Dunkirk. The peloton will have to arm itself against possible echelon formation, especially if the wind comes from the sea. The sprinter teams will do everything they can to bring their fast men to the finish in a good position. The last kilometres are clear and wide, which makes a classic mass sprint likely.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 3

 

Stage 4: Amiens – Rouen (174.0 km)

The fourth stage of the 2025 Tour de France takes the peloton from Amiens to Rouen, a route characterised by a rolling profile and a finale full of vicious slopes. The Côte de Belbeuf is a short but tough climb of 1.3 kilometres at 9.1%. This climb can thin out the peloton a bit, especially if the pace is high. Then the Côte de Bonsecours (0.9 km at 7.2%) awaits, which is mainly known for the monument to Jean Robic, winner of the Tour in 1947.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 4

 

Stage 7: Saint-Malo – Mûr-de-Bretagne (197.0 km)

The seventh stage takes the peloton from the port city of Saint-Malo to the iconic Mûr-de-Bretagne. This is a stage that is full of tradition and excitement, because the double passage over the Mûr-de-Bretagne guarantees spectacle and certainly does not result in a bunch sprint.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 7

 

Stage 8: Saint-Méen-le-Grand – Laval (171.4 km)

The eighth stage is a transition stage that takes the peloton from Saint-Méen-le-Grand to Laval. The profile is relatively flat, with only a few rolling sections that will have little impact on the course of the race. This is a day that the sprinter teams have set their sights on, because the chance of a bunch sprint is high. However, the riders must remain alert: the course takes in narrow, winding roads and the wind can cause echelons on the open sections.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 8

 

Stage 9: Chinon – Châteauroux (174.1 km)

The ninth stage is another flat stage, this time from Chinon to Châteauroux. This is a classic sprinter’s stage, with wide, straight roads and a course that invites high speeds. After the start in historic Chinon, the peloton heads southeast through the Loire region, known for its castles and vast fields. There are hardly any obstacles to speak of along the way: only a few small hills in the first part of the stage, after which the course becomes completely flat. Sprint!

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 9

 

Stage 11: Toulouse – Toulouse (156.8 km)

After the first rest day, the riders will be presented with a relatively short and flat stage around Toulouse. This is a day for the sprinters to show themselves again, although there are a few short, uncategorized climbs in the first part of the stage that can thin out the peloton.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 11

 

Stage 15: Muret – Carcassonne (169.3 km)

After three gruelling mountain stages, the riders will be presented with a relatively mild course from Muret to Carcassonne in the fifteenth stage. However, it is not a real sprinter's stage: the profile is undulating, with a number of short, tough climbs spread out over the ride. The first half of the stage takes in undulating roads, where strong attackers can seize their chance. The peloton will be vigilant, however, because the sprinters who have survived the hard work in the mountains want to seize their chance here.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 15

 

Stage 17: Bollène – Valence (160.4 km)

Stage 17 is a transition stage from Bollène to Valence, ideal for sprinters looking to survive the Alps. The course is largely flat, with only a few gentle undulations in the first part of the stage. The finale towards Valence is wide and clear, with a long straight approach to the finish. This is a day where the sprinter teams will want to take firm control.

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 17

 

Stage 21: Mantes-la-Ville – Parijs (132.3 km)

The final stage of the 2025 Tour de France is traditionally a festive entry into Paris, but this edition has a special passage: the peloton rides via Montmartre, the iconic hill in the heart of the city. After leaving Mantes-la-Ville, the peloton heads towards the capital at a leisurely pace, where the atmosphere is relaxed and the GC riders congratulate each other. However, the tension rises as soon as Paris comes into view, because the sprinter teams are preparing for the prestigious mass sprint on the Champs-Élysées. Will the attackers throw a spanner in the works and spoil the sprinter's party?

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 21

Tour de France 2025 - favourites green jersey

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Jonathan Milan

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling


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