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Tour de France 2025 - Prediction stage 1

Friday 4 July 2025 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Saturday July 5th 2025: Stage 1 - Lille - Lille (185 km, sprint) 

The 112th edition of the Tour de France starts on Saturday 5 July in Lille, with a flat stage of 185 kilometres. Which sprinter will take the first yellow jersey? The 2025 Tour de France opens with a stage around Lille, a city known for its cycling history and wide boulevards. The start is festive, but the peloton will soon be confronted with some vicious hills. After the start, the riders head southwest towards the Côte de Notre-Dame-de-Lorette, a 1.1-kilometre climb with an average gradient of 7.8%. This first climb will mainly serve to test the legs, not to make the difference right away. This is followed by a rolling passage towards the Côte de Cassel, a 2.3-kilometre hill at 3.7%. This climb is a stone's throw from the Belgian border and takes the peloton into a classic Northern French landscape, with open fields and a chance of wind.

Halfway through the stage, the Mont Noir (also called Zwarteberg) awaits, a climb of 1.3 kilometres at 5.8%. After these hills, there is a flat approach of approximately 45 kilometres back to Lille. Here, the sprinter teams get the chance to organise themselves and put their fast men in position. The final kilometre on the Boulevard Vauban is straight as an arrow, ideal for a mass sprint. There is a good chance that a sprinter will wear the first yellow jersey of this Tour, although the classification riders must remain alert for echelons in the open landscape. The course contains less than 1,000 metres of elevation, giving the sprinters a unique chance to take the yellow jersey straight away. Who will succeed Marcel Kittel as the last winner in Lille?

 

📺Eurosport 1 (13.30 u), Sporza (13.30 u)
⏰13.25 u
🏁17.30 u
⛅️Clowded, light to mild wind, 23 degrees

Tour de France 2025 - profile stage 1
Tour de France 2025 - route stage 1

 

Tour de France 2025 - final kilometers stage 1

Tour de France 2025 - favourites stage 1

💻Computer prediction, Expected Win (xW)

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