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Vuelta a España 2026 - stage 2 prediction

Saturday 22 August 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Sunday 23 August – Vuelta a España stage 2: Monaco → Manosque (214.3 km)

Route

Stage 2 of the Vuelta a España 2026 takes the peloton from Monaco to Manosque, over 214.3 kilometres through the Alpes-Maritimes and Provence. The stage is hilly: two categorised climbs and a series of uncategorised rises keep the route unsettled all day, with a total of roughly 2,630 metres of elevation gain, before the road climbs one final time near Manosque.

After the start in Monaco, the route runs via Èze to Nice, where the peloton follows the Promenade des Anglais. Beyond the airport the race turns inland and the road starts to climb. Around km 32 lies the Alto Châteauneuf-Grasse (12.8 km at 2.9%), the first categorised climb. The route then rolls up and down for more than 60 kilometres, until the Col de Saint-Andrieu (4.7 km at 4.8%) at km 92. After the mountain sprint comes a short descent and immediately an extra kick of 3 km at 6.1%, without an official category.

The pattern of ups and downs continues. Just before the final 50 kilometres, the road climbs again for 2.8 km at 6.2%. At Valensole, with 20 km to go, the road descends gradually into the Durance valley. The final 5 kilometres into Manosque run over a slight, rising false flat.

Vuelta a España 2026 etappe 2 – hoogteprofiel

Vuelta a España 2026 etappe 2 – routekaart

Final kilometres

With 20 km to go, the peloton passes Valensole, after which the road descends gradually into the Durance valley. The final 5 kilometres into Manosque are flat to slightly rising, without any sharp obstacles. The finish line comes after a false flat, not after a genuine final climb.

Recent editions

Manosque has not previously been a finish town in the Vuelta a España, but it has featured regularly in the Tour de la Provence, on a similarly slightly rising finish. 2025 – Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), ahead of Matej Mohorič and Fred Wright. 2024 – Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). 2022 – Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), in a stage from Arles.

Scenarios

Puncheurs and fast finishers. The slightly rising finish has repeatedly suited sprinters with an extra engine in the Tour de la Provence. Wout van Aert and Mads Pedersen are among the favourites for the stage win.

GC riders. The succession of short climbs in the final 100 kilometres can already create differences between the GC riders. Tadej Pogačar immediately faces the question of whether he will make a statement for GC.

Early breakaway riders. The long, undulating route between Nice and Valensole offers room for an early escape, although the chance of a breakaway stage is small given the stakes on the hilly finale.

Local

Manosque, in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence department, is the birthplace and place of death of writer Jean Giono (1895-1970), who lived in the town for almost his entire life and found the setting for his work there. The town has previously been a regular finish location in the Tour de la Provence, but appears for the first time on the Vuelta a España route.

Weather forecast

On Sunday, Manosque can expect plenty of sunshine with a maximum of 30.4°C and a minimum of 12.2°C. No rain is forecast, it will stay dry. In the final 50 km there will be a wind from the northwest with speeds up to 7.9 km/h, barely affecting the race.

TV guide

  • HBO Max — 14:45

Vuelta a España 2026 stage 2: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Mattias Skjelmose

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling