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Il Lombardia 2026 - prediction

Thursday 8 October 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers
Race: Il Lombardia

Saturday 10 October 2026: Il Lombardia – Bergamo – Como (239 km)

The 120th edition of Il Lombardia covers 239 kilometres and roughly 4,600 metres of climbing, spread over nine climbs. The direction is reversed compared with 2025: the race starts in Bergamo and finishes in Como. The Colma di Sormano is not on the programme.

Route

The race begins with the Bocche di Gavarno (3.1 km at 4.7%), with the summit after 14.2 km. Straight after comes Selvino (10.1 km at 5.9%, maximum 9%), with more than 207 km to go. Colle di Berbenno (4.5 km at 6.3%) comes after 65.7 km, Valpiana (10.1 km at 6.2%, maximum 10%) after 85.5 km. A flat middle section of almost 30 km follows. With about 103 km to go comes Giovenzana (3.6 km at 9.2%): the first 2.85 km average 10.5%, with peaks of up to 16%.

After the descent to Lecco the route follows Lake Como to Bellagio, followed by a flat stretch of about 20 km. The Madonna del Ghisallo (8.6 km at 6.2%) begins with 4.25 km at 9.3% and a maximum of 14%. A flat middle section then follows, and a closing two kilometres at 8.6% with peaks of 12%. The summit comes after 178.4 km, with 60.6 km still to go. After the descent, with more than 39 km to go, the peloton enters the 22 km finishing circuit around Como.

San Fermo della Battaglia (2.7 km at 7.2%, maximum 10%) is climbed twice. The first summit comes with 27.1 km to go. In between lies Civiglio (4.2 km at 9.7%, maximum 14%), with the summit 16.7 km from the finish. The second ascent of San Fermo follows with 5.2 km to go. The descent to Como is more than 5 km long, and the last 1.6 km are almost flat. The final corner is roughly 600 metres from the finish.

Il Lombardia 2026 – profiel

Il Lombardia 2026 – route

Recent editions

YearWinnerTeam
2025Tadej PogačarUAE Team Emirates XRG
2024Tadej PogačarUAE Team Emirates
2023Tadej PogačarUAE Team Emirates
2022Tadej PogačarUAE Team Emirates
2021Tadej PogačarUAE Team Emirates

Pogačar won the last five editions and so stands at five wins, equal to Fausto Coppi. He is absent in 2026 due to injuries from the Vuelta, so there will be a new winner. In 2024, also from Bergamo to Como, he won solo after an attack from 48 km out over the Sormano. Remco Evenepoel finished second then, Giulio Ciccone third.

Evenepoel (Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe) is this year's European road champion. Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates XRG) won the GP Montréal in September and finished fifth at the World Championships. Paul Seixas rides for Decathlon CMA CGM.

Local

Il Lombardia was first held in 1905, as a loop from and to Milan. Since 2014 the start and finish have alternated between Bergamo and Como. Como lies at the southwestern tip of Lake Como and is the capital of the province of the same name. The chapel at the top of the Madonna del Ghisallo is dedicated to the patron saint of cyclists and sits next to the Museo del Ciclismo.

Scenarios

A stage for the climbers: Civiglio (4.2 km at 9.7%) is the place for a selection, with Seixas, Evenepoel and Del Toro as the three biggest contenders. Whoever goes with them there gets one more point of attack on the second San Fermo.

A day for the puncheurs and classics riders: the second San Fermo (2.7 km at 7.2%) is 5.2 km from the finish, leaving room for a short attack from Healy, Simmons, Pidcock or Jorgenson. Pidcock and Jorgenson finished behind winner Jarno Widar in the Tre Valli Varesine.

Flat final kilometres: if a small group stays together, a sprint decides after 239 km. The last 1.6 km are almost flat.

Weather forecast

On Saturday 10 October dry weather is expected in Como, with a maximum temperature of 19.9°C and a minimum of 11.1°C. There is no precipitation. The wind comes from the west-northwest and stays light, with speeds up to 7 km/h.

TV guide

  • Eurosport 1: from 10:35
  • HBO Max: from 10:35
  • VRT1: from 13:30

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Il Lombardia 2026: Favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

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Team
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