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Tour of Guangxi 2026 - GC prediction

Monday 12 October 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Tuesday 13 October to Sunday 18 October: Tour of Guangxi – Chongzuo – Nongla (1,043 km)

The Tour of Guangxi is the last race on the 2026 WorldTour calendar. The peloton rides six stages over 1,043 kilometres and 11,373 metres of climbing, from Chongzuo to the Nongla Scenic Area. It is the seventh edition since the first in 2017. The race was not held in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

The route differs from 2025. The start is in Chongzuo for the first time, the stages Bama – Tian'e and Jinchengjiang – Yizhou are new, and the summit finish at Nongla has been moved to the final day. After Nongla there is therefore no stage left to win back time.

Recent winners and records

The five most recent editions produced five different winners.

YearWinnerTeam
2025Paul DoubleTeam Jayco AlUla
2024Lennert Van EetveltLotto Dstny
2023Milan VaderTeam Jumbo-Visma
2019Enric MasDeceuninck-Quick-Step
2018Gianni MosconTeam Sky

Since 2017 nobody has won the overall classification twice. Double, who won the stage to Nongla in 2025, can become the first to take a second overall win. Paul Magnier won five of the six stages last year.

The stages

Stage 1, Tuesday 13 October: Chongzuo – Chongzuo (149.4 km, 768 m of climbing). A flat circuit in and around the start town. This is the first chance for the pure sprinters and decides the first leader.

Stage 2, Wednesday 14 October: Chongzuo – Jingxi (179.7 km, 1,758 m of climbing). A second-category climb (8.5 km at 3.4%) lies roughly 30 kilometres from the finish. After that the road rises gently to the finish. Magnier won the sprint here in 2025.

Stage 3, Thursday 15 October: Jingxi – Bama (212.3 km, 1,794 m of climbing). The longest stage. The finale contains a second-category climb (11.7 km at 2.2%), a third-category climb (2.7 km at 4.7%) and a final climb of 0.9 km at 5.2%. The stage offers chances for sprinters who survive the climbs and for puncheurs.

Stage 4, Friday 16 October: Bama – Tian'e (165.7 km, 2,765 m of climbing). New, and the hardest stage in terms of climbing, without a summit finish. Among others, a second-category climb (7.3 km at 5.3%) and a third-category climb (7.1 km at 4.0%) lie on the route. With 23 kilometres to go there is a short climb of 1.7 km at 8.5%, after which the road descends to Tian'e. The first seconds can be gained here by the GC riders, and early breakaway riders can win the day.

Stage 5, Saturday 17 October: Jinchengjiang – Yizhou (170.1 km, 2,312 m of climbing). Three categorised climbs (6.6 km at 4.9%, 7.3 km at 3.8% and 2.4 km at 5.4%), followed by fifty kilometres of flat or descending terrain to the finish. The stage offers chances for sprinters and for a late breakaway.

Stage 6, Sunday 18 October: Yizhou – Nongla (165.8 km, 1,976 m of climbing). Queen stage and decisive for the GC. The route is flat for a long time, with a third-category climb (2.7 km at 4.6%) roughly 50 kilometres from the finish. The final climb to Nongla is first-category (3.2 km at 7.3%) and includes a final ramp of 1.2 km at 14.8%. Stages 2 to 6 all feature intermediate sprints with bonus seconds, including on the final day.

Candidates

The provisional start list has 154 riders. For the GC, Nongla is decisive, a finish for climbers with a strong finishing kick and for puncheurs. Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) finished second in Milano-Sanremo this year and won GP Industria & Artigianato and Milano-Torino, among others. His only overall win in a stage race is the 2025 AlUla Tour; he has not yet won a WorldTour overall classification. Defending champion Double, Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) and Kévin Vauquelin (Netcompany INEOS) are also starting.

Maxim Van Gils and Daniel Felipe Martínez (both Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Jarno Widar (Lotto Intermarché) and Afonso Eulálio (Bahrain Victorious) can also contend for the overall win on Nongla.

The sprinters make up a strong field. Besides Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step), Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM), Kaden Groves (Alpecin - Premier Tech) and Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) are starting. Kooij has won stages in Guangxi before. Juan Sebastián Molano (UAE Team Emirates XRG), Max Kanter (XDS Astana Team), Milan Fretin (Cofidis) and Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) are also on the start list.

It is the last chance of the season to win in the WorldTour. Fabio Jakobsen makes his WorldTour debut for Visma | Lease a Bike. By his own account he last won at the Tour of Turkey, more than two and a half years ago, and recently finished fifteenth in the Münsterland Giro. Four stages offer chances for sprinters; the final day is for the climbers.

Tour of Guangxi 2026 – hoogteprofielen etappe 1 t/m 6

Tour of Guangxi 2026: GC favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Neilson Powless

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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