Giro 2024 - Prediction stage 1

Wednesday 1 May 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Saturday May 4th 2024: Venaria Reale - Turin (140 km) 

Who will win stage 1 of Giro d'Italia 2024 according to the computer? The stage will start in Venaria Reale and finishes after 140 kilometers in Turin. The first stage is relatively short and offerst two hills: one of 4th and one of 3rd category before the rider arrive in Turin for the first time. At the local lap of 30 kilomters the riders will have to climb Colle Maddalena (6.1 km at 7.4%). Riders who are still hanging on in the peloton will cruise to the finish back in Turin. There is a booby-trap at 4.4 kilometers from teh finish: a hill of 1.4 kilomters at 9.8%. From the top hter is 3 kilometers left, descending into Turin. It is quite likely a hill-specialists with a strong sprint will receive the first maglia rosa (pink jersey).

📺Eurosport 1 (13.50 u)
⏰13.50 u
🏁17.15 u
⛅️Clowdy, 15 degrees

Giro 2024 - profile stage 1
Giro 2024 - profile final kilometers stage 1
Giro 2024 - route stage 1
Giro 2024 - route final kilometers stage 1

Stats Giro d'Italia stages

Mario Cipollini is the rider with most stage-wins in the Giro. The extravagant sprinter won 42 stages, one more than Alfredo Binda.  Mark Cavendish is the active rider with most stage-wins in the Giro. He won his 17 Giro stage last year in Rome which was his 17th GrandTour with at least one stage win. Cavendish now is the oldest winner of a Giro-stage ever. Mario Cipollini is again the only rider who performed better with regard to being victorious in GTs: 20 GrandTours with at least one victory.

9 riders will try to complete their trilogy of stage-wins in all three GrandTours this Giro d'Italia: Alaphilippe, Lutsenko, Woods, Majka, Bardet, Clarke, Calmejane and Tadej Pogacar have already won a stage in Tour de France and La Vuelta a Espana. How many of them will become a 'Triple Club Member’?

If Pogacar succeeds to win stage 1, he will the first rider since Mathieu van der Poel (2022) to win his first ever participated Giro d'Italia stage, just like Ganna (2020), Pöstlberger (2017), Dumoulin (2016), Phinney (2012) and Verbrugghe (2002). Pogacar would receive the first pink jersey as well, and let's mention it: the last riders to wear the leader's jersey for an entire Grand Tour are: Rominger (Vuelta '94), Bugno (Giro '90), Maertens (Vuelta '77) and Merckx (Giro '73).

Giro 2024 - Prediction stage 1

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Mauri Vansevenant

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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