Giro 2024 - GC prediction

Monday 29 April 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Who will win the general classification of the Giro d'Italia 2024 according to the computer? Who will receive the last maglia rosa in Rome? It seems the easiest question of this Giro. The battle behind the number 1 favourite, Tadej Pogacar, looks more exciting beforehand. With Geraint Thomas, Thymen Arensman, Ben O'Connor, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Romain Bardet and Antonio Tiberi at the startlist their are several contenders for the podium in Rome. Given the two long Individual Time Trials scheduled this Giro, specialists (Thomas, Arensman and Tiberi) have a small advantage to the rest.  

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Giro 2024 - favourites pink jersey


Stats Giro d'Italia 2024

We'll preview this Giro with some interesting statistics.

This year's startlist may be the youngest since 2000, with an average age of 28.32, but we have a number of veterans in our midst. This of course includes G. Thomas, who is once again aiming for a podium, after last year's second place in the rankings, he went down as one of the oldest podium candidates ever (37 years old). Will do it again this year? The last rider to be on the Giro podium two years in a row was Tom Dumoulin, in 2017 and 2018.

Average age of Giro startlist: 2024 youngest since 2000.

Another experiences rider starting is Nairo Quintana - the only former winner at the start of this Giro. He won the Giro in 2014 on his debut, which Bernal and Contador also achieved. Does Pogačar join that list of debutant winners?

Italian home-favorite Pozzovivo deserves an honorable mention as well, as it will be his 18th participation in the Giro. A record number of participations in the same Grand Tour; only Panizza (also Giro) and Sylvain Chavanel (Tour de France) preceded him. Pozzovivo is participating in this Giro together with 41 other Italians. The amount of Italians is not surprising, given the race  in their number, but it is the smallest number of Italian participants in the history of the Giro d'Italia.

Compared to those experiences participants, no fewer than 54 debutants will appear at the start. For Alaphilippe and Laporte, among others, it is their first participation in the Giro at the age of 31. Young debutants include Pellizzari (20), Uijtdebroeks and Lamperti (21).

However, all eyes will be on Tadej Pogacar. He is the only rider from the top 10 UCI-ranking who will be at the start this year. UAE also has the strongest team this Giro, followed by Visma | Lease a Bike and INEOS Grenadiers. There is a good chance that Pogi will already be wearing pink after the first stage. And let's mention it: the last riders to wear the leader's jersey for an entire Grand Tour are: Rominger (Vuelta '94), Bugno (Giro '90), Maertens (Vuelta '77) and Merckx (Giro '73).

Last year it was an exciting battle for victory up to the twentieth stage. A final gap of 14 seconds decided the Giro in Roglic's favor against Thomas. It was the tightest result in a Grand Tour since the battle between LeMond and Fignon in the Tour de France of 1989. If we follow the computer, the stats and everyone's expectations, the battle for the pink will be decided earlier this year. What does it mean for the course of the stages and the battle for the remaining podium places? 

Andiamo, let's go!

Giro 2024 - Prediction GC (maglia rosa)

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Geraint Thomas

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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