La Flèche Wallonne 2024 - Prediction

Monday 15 April 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Wednesday April 17th 2024: La Flèche Wallonne - Charleroi - Mur de Huy (199.1km) 

Who will win La Flèche Wallonne 2024 according to the computer? La Flèche Wallonne starts in Charleroi and ends at the iconic Mur de Huy after 199.1 kilometer. Like every year the riders will race a local lap and they do it 4 times this edition. The lap features 2 climbs: Cote d'Ereffe (2.1 km at 5%) and Mur de Huy (1.3 km at 9.6%). The first 300 meters of 'The Mur' are relatively easy, but from that point onwards it is steep until the finish. During 800 meters the road continiously rises at 11%, peaking at 17%. The final 100 meters must feel flat with a gradient of 6%. Who will be most patient and save the best for last?

📺Eurosport 1 (14.30u), Sporza (14.30u)
⏰11.15 u
🏁16.25 u
⛅️Rainy, 8 degrees

La Flèche Wallonne 2024 - profile
La Flèche Wallonne 2024 - profile Mur deHuy
La Flèche Wallonne 2024 - route
La Flèche Wallonne 2024 - climbs


Stats La Flèche Wallonne

The King of the Mur de Huy is Alejandro Valverde with 5 wins, of which 4 consecutive and 4 more podium-results. Alaphilippe, Argentin, Merckx, Kint en Rebellin all won 3 editions of the race. The only Dutch rider who won La FLèche was Joop Zoetemelk in 1976.

Zoetemelk is together with Rebellin, Albasini and Alejandro Valverde the rider with most starts (and finishes) in the second hills-classic of the season: 16 times. Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema and Wout Poels are the active riders with most starts, Mollema and Ulissi will ride their 13th Flèche on Wednesday.

The average speed in La Flèche was 43.5 km/h in 2023, increasing year after year since 2018. The fastest edition was won by Davide Rebellin in 2004 (44.1 km/h). The race is always decided on the final climb. Maurizio Fondriest wast the last rider (in 1993) to win with a solo from before Mur de Huy (30km).

Looking at the startlist of 2024, the race has the youngest starlist since 2008, a decreasing trend is visible in the last 5 years.

Last year, Tadej Pogacar won La FLèche after winning Amstel Gold Race, Will Pidcock do the double in 2024?

Waalse Pijl 2024 - prediction

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Mattias Skjelmose

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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