Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 - Prediction

Friday 19 April 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Sunday April 21st: Liège - Liège (259 km) 

Who will win Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 according to the computer? La Doyenne, the old lady of all clasics starts in Liège and finishes 259 km later in in the same city. It will be up and down the whole day with 10 categorized climbs and 4000 meter of elevation gain. The final of the race is starting from the Cote de la Redoute (1.6 km at 9.4%), at 34 kilometers before the finish. Afterwards riders will have to climb Cote des Forges (1.3 km at 7.8%) en and finally the most decisive climb: Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.3 km at 11%). The weather predictions are familiar to the Wallonian landscape: rain pouring down in the hills.

📺Eurosport 1 (14.35u), Sporza (13.30u), NPO 1 (12.45u)
⏰10.10 u
🏁16.30 u
⛅️Rainy, light wind, 11 degrees

Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 - profile
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 - profile final
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 - route
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 - hills


Stats Liège-Bastogne-Liège

We are on the eve of the one-hundred-and-tenth-edition of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, which makes LBL the oldest monument. We're going back into the archives for some interesting statistics!

Starting with last year's edition, which was won by Remco Evenepoel. In 2023 he was the first reigning World Champion Road Race to win LBL since Moreno Argentin in 1987. He did so with the longest solo since Hinault in 1980 (30 km), and he was more than a minute ahead of the number two (2nd time since 2000) . Evenepoel also ensured that LBL 2023 will go down as one of the three fastest editions of LBL, together with the 2022 edition, which was also won by the young Belgian. Unfortunately, he cannot defend his title again this year due to the consequences of his fall in the Basque Country.

Pidcock and Buitrago finisihed on the podium in Liège together with Evenepoel last year, making it a remarkably young top-3. The numbers two and three of LBL 2023 will participate again this year, with  Pogačar being the man to beat. With his victory, the Slovenian would win both Strade-Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège in one season, which only Philippe Gilbert managed to do. Pidcock can - just like in the Amstel Gold Race - become the first Briton to take victory in La Doyenne.

If we go a little further back in history, we cannot ignore Eddy Merckx. The Belgian achieved a podium finish no fewer than seven times at LBL, including five wins. This makes him the rider with the most victories in LBL. Merckx is also the only rider to ever win three monuments in one season. Can Mathieu  van der Poel replicate that achievement this season? This would also mean that LBL would be won in two subsequent editions by the reigning world champion.

On Sunday we will probably see three former winners at the start:  Pogačar, Poels and Jungels. Lecerf and Fisher-Black are among the debutants, while Ulissi and Kwiatkowski are participating in a monument for the 33rd and 37th time respectively. It is Kwiatkowski's thirteenth LBL participation in a row; Together with Costa, he has participated in LBL most often among the active riders.

The riders will have their raincoats and gloves ready again on Sunday. Who will be able to stop Pogačar - the man with the maximum 99 score on hills - from his second LBL victory?

Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024 - prediction

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Maxim van Gils

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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