Amstel Gold Race 2024 - Prediction

Wednesday 10 April 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Sunday April 14th: Maastricht - Vilt (253.6km) 

Who will win Amstel Gold Race 2024 according to the computer? Amstel Gold Race starts in Maastricht and finishes 253.6 kilometer later in Valkenburg. A lot of up and down on this long day in the South of The Netherlands, 33 categorized climbs will await the peloton.

📺Eurosport 1 (14.35u), Sporza (13.30u), NPO 1 (12.45u)
⏰11.25 u
🏁17.15 u
⛅️Cloudy, light wind, 15 degrees

Amstel Gold Race 2024 - profile
Amstel Gold Race 2024 - profile final km
Amstel Gold Race 2024 - route
Amstel Gold Race 2024 - hills


Stats Amstel Gold Race

It is quite unique that the Amstel Gold Race is won after a solo. Yet Pogačar achieved that last year, after one of the longest solos (28.2 km) in the history of the AGR. All eyes will be on Van der Poel this year. Will Alpecin-Deceuninck be able to control the race again as they did at Paris-Roubaix? Van der Poel's victory would once again be an achievement for the history books: never before has a rider won the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix and the Amstel Gold Race in one season.

Young talents usually participate in the Amstel Gold Race. The provisional start list for the 2024 edition is on average the youngest startlist since 1988. In 2022, Uijtdebroeks (19 years 41 days) was the youngest rider ever to start. Last year Tarling (19y 60d) came close. This year Jan Christen (19y and 293d) is the youngest participant in the Dutch classic.

And those youngsters usually perform well in the far most South of The Netherlands. Top-10 of Amstel Gold Race 2023 was the youngest since 2010 in a big classic with Pogačar, Healy, Pidcock, Kron, Van Gils, Skjelmose and Zingle. Healy, Pidcock, Kron, Van Gils and Skjelmose are participating again with a good shot at a top-10 result. Other youngsters like Grégoire, Ayuso and Jorgenson could also contribute to a young top-10 in 2024.

Which experienced riders appear at the start on Sunday? Kwiatkowski (former winner) and Fuglsang will start their 12th AGR on Sunday zondag voor de twaalfde keer deelnemen aan de AGR. Of the active riders, they have participated in this classic most often. Besides Kwiatkowski, Van der Poel is the only participant who has already won AGR. However, there are many riders who will make their debut on Sunday. Among others Philipsen, Jorgenson and Almeida will start their first Amstel Gold Race.

The Dutch most won the Dutch classic. Boogerd, Dekker, Maassen, Adrie van der Poel and his son Mathieu, among others, have won the Amstel Gold Race. A Spaniard or British never did that. Pidcock in particular will be keen to change that, after finishing just behind Van Aert in 2021.

It is also nice to reflect on Tour de Tietema. TDT-Unibet make its debut at a WT race at the AGR 2024. Jelle Johannink, Hartthijs de Vries and Tomas Kopecky are some name who will conquer the Limburg-hills. Our colleague Daniël and Thomas will be present at the race to cheer for the Dutch team.

Daniël will bring some new rider-cards to the race and press-zone, so keep an eye on our Instagram profile!

Amstel Gold Race 2024 - prediction

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Maxim van Gils

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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