x

Tour de France 2026 - stage 21 prediction

Saturday 25 July 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Listen to the podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts

Get excited for the race with us!

Sunday 26 July – Tour de France stage 21: Thoiry → Paris (132.5 km)

Route

The final stage of the Tour de France 2026 runs from Thoiry, in the Yvelines department west of Paris, to the Champs-Élysées. The stage covers 132.5 kilometres and is classified as flat.

At km 43, the Côte du Pavé des Gardes (0.7 km at 8.7%). The peloton then heads towards Paris. The Côte de la Butte Montmartre features three times: at km 90, km 106, and km 122. The climb rises 1.1 kilometres at an average of 5.9% via the Rue Lepic to the square near the Sacré-Cœur.

After the third passage of Montmartre, it is 10.3 kilometres to the finish on the Champs-Élysées. The approach is flat.

Tour de France 2026 etappe 21 – hoogteprofiel

Tour de France 2026 etappe 21 – routekaart

Final kilometres

The third ascent of the Côte de la Butte Montmartre begins at km 122 (1.1 km at 5.9%). Above the climb, near the Sacré-Cœur, it is 10.3 kilometres to the line. Compared to 2025, this final passage is further from the finish: last year it was 6.5 kilometres, now 10.3 kilometres. After the descent, a flat approach leads to the Champs-Élysées, where the peloton rides eight laps of the Parisian circuit.

Recent editions

2025: Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike). The Belgian dropped Tadej Pogačar on the Côte de la Butte Montmartre during the final passage and rode solo to the finish. The first solo victory on the Champs-Élysées since 2005.
2024: No finish on the Champs-Élysées. The Tour ended in Nice due to the Olympic Games in Paris.
2023: Jordi Meeus (BORA - hansgrohe). Bunch sprint on the Champs-Élysées.
2022: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck). Bunch sprint.
2021: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma). Sprint, ahead of Jasper Philipsen and Mark Cavendish.

Scenarios

The Côte de la Butte Montmartre (1.1 km at 5.9%) is too hard for pure sprinters. Puncheurs and classics riders with a sprint can make the difference here. The greater distance between the top of Montmartre and the finish (10.3 km versus 8 km in 2025) makes a solo effort less sustainable than last year. Sprint teams have more time to come back. A bunch sprint featuring strong sprinters who can handle the climb is therefore among the possibilities.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) tops the favourites list. Van der Poel combined his Tour this year with the role of lead-out for Jasper Philipsen, but Montmartre suits him better than a pure sprint finish. Whether he has specifically prepared for it has not been publicly confirmed, though his profile and recent classics performances point to strong chances. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is another dangerous contender: strong in the classics, good in the sprint. Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) is also highly rated. Philipsen himself is the logical option in case of a regrouping and bunch sprint. Is Tadej Pogacar ready to play one last time?

Local

Thoiry is a municipality in the Yvelines department, west of Paris, known for its zoo of the same name. The Tour de France finale is traditionally a celebration for the Parisian population and visitors from around the world.

The Côte de la Butte Montmartre via the Rue Lepic made its Tour debut in 2025, following the popularity of Montmartre during the Olympic road race in Paris in 2024. The 2025 edition attracted 8.7 million viewers in France, the highest ratings for the Tour in twenty years. The 2025 hero, Wout van Aert, did not start in 2026.

Tour de France 2026 stage 21: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Paul Seixas

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling