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Strade Bianche 2024 - Prediciton

Wednesday 28 February 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Saturday March 2nd 2024: Siena - Siena (215 km)

Who will win Strade Bianche 2024 according to the computer? Strade will start in Siena and finishes after 215km in Siena again at the PIazza del Campo. The Italian (gravel)classic in the making was already tough and demanding, but the organization has gone the extra mile: 30 kilometers and 4 extra gravel-sectors. This brings the total number of unpaved meters to 71.5 kilometers. In combination with almost 3.700 meters of elevation, the Strade Bianche is one of the toughest one-day races on the cycling calendar, as you can also read in the stats below.

⏰11.10 u
🏁16.45 u
⛅️Lichte regen, windkracht 2/3, 14 graden

Strade Bianche 2024 - profiel
Strade Bianche 2024 - profile
Strade Bianche 2024 - profiel laatste km
Strade Bianche 2024 - profile final km
Strade Bianche 2024 - parcours
Strade Bianche 2024 - route


Stats on Strade Bianche

In addition to the computer's prediction, we will delve into a number of interesting statistics before the start of this tough spring-classic.

The extra mile

In an attempt to enforce Monument status, the organization of Strade Bianche has added 30 kilometers, 500 meters of elevation and four gravel sectors to the route of its 18th edition. The riders have to cover a total of 215 kilometers, of which 71 are unpaved, spread over 15 gravel sectors. With the traditional finish on the Piazza del Campo, the Strade Bianche is one of the highlights of the spring campaign.


Even before the adjustments to the course, Strade Bianche was already one of the toughest classics, as evidenced by the number of dropouts per edition. The percentage of riders who do not reach the finish in Siena (on time) has been 44% in the last ten editions. The largest share of all spring classics. In 2020, only a quarter of all starters reached the finish in the warm summer edition. The expectation is that the course adjustments will again ensure a tough - possibly tougher - edition in 2024.

Another indicator that shows the difficulty of the Strade is the altitude gain per kilometer. With 3674 elevation meters in 215 kilometers, that ratio is even higher in 2024 than in 2023. After Il lombardia, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and GP Montreal, Strade Bianche is the race with the most elevation meters per kilometer. Add the 75 kilometers of unpaved gravel roads to that and it is clear: Strade 2024 is even harder and not suitable for sprinters.

One-day classics with largest share of dropouts
One-day classics with largest share of dropouts

Season-debut

Never before has a male rider won in Tuscany on his first day of racing of the season. Wout van Aert did it after the corona break on the second raceday of 2020 and in 2021 it was van de Poel's 4th race day on which he defeated Alaphilippe and Bernal in Siena. Will Pogačar become the first to win at his season debut?

Young startlist

Since 2017, a maximum of one teenager has been at the start every year. This year there are currently three riders under the age of 20 on the starting list: Paul Magnier, the fast man from Quick Step who has already won twice this season, , Jan Christen, the Swiss servant of Pogacar at UAE, and Emil Herzog, the junior world champion from 2022. 

The youngest participant in history of Strade remains Simone Velasco, who started the tour through the Tuscan hills in 2015 at the age of 19 years and 95 days. At 44 years and 209 days, Davide Rebellin was the oldest participant to date in 2016, followed by Jens Voigt (42 and 172 days in 2014) and Alejandro Valverde (41 years and 314 days in 2022).

Strade 2024 has the youngest start list of a major classic since Omloop 2009 (27,5 average). Almost all editions of monuments and big classics in the past 25 years remained above the average age of 28.

Average age of participants in Strade Bianche
Average age of participants in Strade Bianche (ProCyclingStats)

The big three

The special thing about Strade Bianche is that, besides the Amstel Gold Race, it is the only classic where Pogačar, Van Aert and Van der Poel are on the honors list. In addition, gems such as Alaphilippe, Pidcock, Gilbert and Kwiatkowski have also won on the Piazza del Campo; a list of honors to match. Fabian Cancellara (3 wins) and Kwiatkowski (2 wins) are the only multiple winners. Pogačar and Pidcock have the best credentials to join this pair with a second victory this year.

Startlist Quality

The startlist quality of ProCyclingStats is a good indication of how strong the field of participants is. Until 2021, the SQ of Strade Bianche was on the rise and was one of the five to six classics with the strongest field of participants. That quality dropped slightly in the last two seasons, partly due to the cancellation of top-favourites and such as Pogačar and Van Aert in previous years. The latter and, for example, Mathieu van der Poel will also not be at the start in 2024. Still, the quality of Strade Bianche's 2024 start list will be at its highest level since 2018.

UAE Team Emirates in Strade Bianche 2024 is the strongest team since... again BMC Racing Team, which had a strong team in 2012. Last week in the Omloop, Visma started with the strongest team since BMC in 2012; now the same applies to UAE in the Strade. With Wellens, Hirschi, Del Toro, Novak, Baroncini, Christen and leader Pogačar, the team strength of UAE is 6067. BMC was even stronger in 2012 with Evans, Gilbert, Hincapie, Van Avermaet and Ballan (7632 points). Unlike Team Visma in last week's Omloop, BMC did not win either the 2012 Omloop or Strade.

Notable names making their debut in the Strade include a number of strong starters from 2024: Laporte, Lemmen, Williams, Van Eetvelt and Del Toro. We are curious about the performance of these men, who will be put to the test this year in Italy in the one-day work.

Strade Bianche 2024 - Prediction

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Daniel Felipe Martinez

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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