Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - Prediction

Monday 25 March 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Sunday March 31st 2024: Antwerpen - Oudenaarde (270.8 km)

Who will win Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 according to the computer? Ronde van Vlaanderen starts in Antwerpen and finishes ater 270.8 km in Oudenaarde. Almost the first half of the race contains relatively few difficult sectors, except the entrance of Konijnenpijp. From kilomter 137 onwards it is fire all day with 17 (cobbled)climbs and 7 cobbled sectors in only 120 kilometers. A final combination of Oude Kwaremont (2.2 km at 4%) and Paterberg (360m at 129%) leaves only 13 flat kilometers to the finish in Oudenaarde.

📺Eurosport 1 (10.00u), Sporza (9.30u)
⏰10.00 u
🏁16.45 u
⛅️Cloudy, light wind, 16 degrees

Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - profiel
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - profile
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - parcours
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - route
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - hellingen en kasseien
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - hilss and cobbles

Stats Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024

We are still recovering from the nasty crash in Dwars door Vlaanderen on Wednesday afternoon, in which Van Aert, Pedersen and Stuyven, among others, were involved. The dreamed battle between Van der Poel and Van Aert will unfortunately not take place on Sunday, due a broken collarbone and a number of broken ribs for Wout.

The absence of Van Aert automatically increases the chances for Van der Poel, who will join the list of three-time Ronde winners Museeuw, Cancellara, Boonen, Leman, Magni and Buysse if he wins on Sunday. The last reigning World Champion to win the Tour of Flanders was Sagan in 2016. 5 seasons in a row top 3 in the same Monument would also be a fairly unique achievement by Van der Poel: 7 riders achieved this and Erik Zabel was the last one in Milan-Sanremo (1997-2001).

Reigning World Champions victorious in de Ronde
Reigning World Champions victorious in de Ronde

However, a top-5 result for Van der Poel would also be a record. In that case, it would be the sixth consecutive season that Van per Poel has finished in the top 5 of the Tour of Flanders, every time since his debut. Mathieu currently shares the record of five consecutive top-5s in De Ronde with Alexander Kristoff (2013-2017). Kristoff's RVV series is certainly impressive. Since 2012, he has never finished outside the top 18 in twelve consecutive participations.

Last year it was Tadej Pogačar who won Ronde van Vlaanderen. Together with Merckx and Bobet, he is the only rider to have won both the Tour of Flanders and the Tour de France in his career. The Slovenian also concluded the fastest edition of De Ronde with his solo in 2023, with an average speed of 44 km/h. Half of the last 24 editions were won solo. This year Pogačar will not appear at the start.

Never did the winner of Omloop Het Nieuwblad win Ronde van Vlaanderen in the same season, normally bad news for reigning Omloop-winner Jan Tratnik, but it's the question if he will start after his crash in Gent-Wevelgem past Sunday. The winner of E3-classic won more often De Ronde. Asgreen, Terpstra, Cancellara (2x), Boonen (3x) and Museeuw achieved it: acht of the past 25 editions.

In short: stats will give Van der Poel an advantage. It's really sad for everyone involved to not have some big names in good shape at the start. It increases the chances of Küng, Jorgenson and Wellens. And what about Mohoric? With CyclingOracle we will be present at the race, follow us at Instagram to get impresions of our trip.

Ronde van Vlaanderen 2024 - prediction

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Alberto Bettiol

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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