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Milano-Sanremo 2025 - Prediction

Tuesday 18 March 2025 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Saturday March 22nd 2025: Pavia - Sanremo (289 km) 

Milano-Sanremo will once again not start in Milan on Saturday 22 March, but in Pavia - to keep it simple. A detail, because ultimately it's all about the last 25 kilometres, with the decisive climbs of the Cipressa and the Poggio, followed by a fast descent to Sanremo.

The race starts with a passage through Pavia, 30 kilometres south of Milan, after which the riders head south. They reach the Passo del Turchino, a long, gradual climb that is 532 metres high. After the top, a descent follows that takes them to the Mediterranean coast.

The riders then face the three capi: Capo Mele, Capo Cervo and Capo Berta. These climbs are not particularly difficult, but mark the start of the final. After the Capo Berta, there are still about 40 kilometres to go.

When the riders reach the village of San Lorenzo al Mare, the climb to the Cipressa begins. The climb is 5.5 kilometres long with an average gradient of 4.1%. The steepest section, at 9%, often causes the first sprinters to drop out. After the Cipressa, there is a short descent to the foot of the Poggio, a 3.7 kilometre long climb with an average gradient of 3.7%. The steepest section of 8% comes close to the top. It's the pinnacle of the race.

In recent years, riders such as Tadej Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel have tried to decide the race on the Poggio. In 2024, they teamed up with Tom Pidcock, but the final became a sprint between the fastest men. Philipsen won the race, with Matthews in second

 

📺Eurosport 1 (10.10 u), VTM (13.30 u)
⏰10.15 u
🏁17.00 u
⛅️Cloudy, light wind, 17 degrees

Milano-Sanremo 2025 - profile
Milano-Sanremo 2025 - profile final kilometer
Milano-Sanremo 2025 - route
Milano-Sanremo 2025 - route final kilometer

Milano-Sanremo 2025 - favourites

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Filippo Ganna

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

LISTEN TO (IN DUTCH):
WIELERORAKEL PODCAST (S4E01) - GOUDEN TIPS VOOR HET KLASSIEKE VOORJAAR
WIELERORAKEL PODCAST (S4E02) - MATHIEU HEIJBOER (VISMA LEASE A BIKE) OVER HET KLASSIEKE VOORJAAR

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