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Donostia Klasikoa - Clásica San Sebastián 2026 - prediction

Friday 31 July 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Saturday 1 August 2026: Clásica San Sebastián – Donostia/San Sebastián – Donostia/San Sebastián (221.1 km)

On Saturday 1 August the 45th edition of the Clásica San Sebastián will be raced, over 221.1 kilometres and more than 4,150 metres of elevation gain. The race is traditionally held six days after the final Tour stage in Paris and this year features seven categorised climbs, one more than in 2025. Both start and finish are on the Boulevard in the centre of Donostia/San Sebastián.

The route first takes the peloton into the interior of Gipuzkoa. Along the way come four climbs that gradually make the race harder: Kalbario, Azkarate (4.2 km at an average of 7.3%), Urraki (8.6 km at an average of 6.9%) and Alkiza (4.4 km at an average of 6.2%). None of these four decide the race, but the sequence already costs the riders who survive Jaizkibel, Erlaitz and Murgil Tontorra a great deal of their reserves. The early breakaway usually gets plenty of room on this stretch, while the teams with team leaders keep an eye on the pace without fully committing yet.

The finale

After the return towards the coast comes the decisive triptych. Jaizkibel (7.9 km at an average of 5.5%) comes after around 140 kilometres of racing and mainly determines the tactical balance: the climb is rarely steep enough for one decisive attack, but the sustained pace of the strongest teams thins out the peloton. Erlaitz (3.9 km at an average of 10.6%) is the toughest continuous slope of the finale and the place where teams with two leaders can split the opposition. Murgil Tontorra, the final obstacle less than 10 kilometres from the line, is 2 kilometres long at an average of almost 10% and demands a maximum effort after more than 200 kilometres of racing. From the top follows a technical descent to the Boulevard, where the race is concluded.

The last eight editions show how varied the Clásica San Sebastián can be, from solo breakaways to sprints from a reduced group:

YearWinnerTeam
2025Giulio CicconeLidl-Trek
2024Marc HirschiUAE Team Emirates
2023Remco EvenepoelSoudal Quick-Step
2022Remco EvenepoelQuick-Step Alpha Vinyl
2021Neilson PowlessEF Education-Nippo
2020not held(coronavirus pandemic)
2019Remco EvenepoelDeceuninck-Quick-Step
2018Julian AlaphilippeQuick-Step Floors

Last year Ciccone demonstrated how a solo effort on Murgil Tontorra can hold up to the line. Evenepoel won the race three times with a similar scenario: an attack in the final phase that was not brought back. Other editions, such as Hirschi's in 2024 and Powless's in 2021, ended instead in a sprint from a select group on the Boulevard.

Because the Klasikoa falls so soon after the Tour de France, the link between Tour form and results in San Sebastián is often examined. That link exists, but is less clear-cut than often assumed. Alejandro Valverde won the race in 2014 after finishing fourth in the Tour, and climbed onto the San Sebastián podium in 2016 a week after finishing sixth in the Tour. However, an actual Tour podium directly followed by a win in San Sebastián is rare, mainly because many general classification riders opt for recovery after three weeks of racing rather than a fifth monument. The riders who do start usually do so in varying form: some benefit from the endurance they have built up, others arrive exhausted.

For Bauke Mollema this will be his last Clásica San Sebastián. The Dutchman, who is retiring from cycling after this season, won the race in 2016 with an attack on the descent after the final climb and also stood on the podium in 2014, 2017 and 2018. That makes him one of the riders with the most podium finishes in this race since the turn of the century. His farewell to San Sebastián closes one of the most notable chapters of his palmarès.

The 2026 course is heavier than last year's and again looks like a race for a climber with explosiveness on Murgil Tontorra or an attacker who dares to go earlier on Erlaitz. A sprint from a small group on the Boulevard remains possible, but requires riders who survive the entire finale without losing their speed.

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Clásica San Sebastián 2026 – profiel

Clásica San Sebastián 2026 – route

Clásica San Sebastián 2026: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Giulio Pellizzari

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling