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Tour de Pologne 2026 - GC prediction

Sunday 2 August 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Tour de Pologne 2026 – Monday 3 August to Sunday 9 August: Gdynia – Wieliczka (1110 km)

The 83rd edition of the Tour de Pologne is built around the theme "North-South". The WorldTour peloton sets off on 3 August from the coastal town of Gdynia, which celebrates its centenary this year, and works its way down over seven stages and more than 1110 kilometres towards Wieliczka, where the salt mine near Kraków provides the backdrop for the closing time trial. Along the way, the race takes riders from the Baltic coast through Pomerania and Lower Silesia to the mountains of Lesser Poland.

The opening stages take place in the flat and hilly north and offer chances for the fast men, although day one's route with more than 2000 metres of climbing makes for a selective start. From stage 4 onwards the focus shifts to the mountains: Karpacz, Kocierz Resort and Bukowina Tatrzańska deliver three uphill finishes, before the individual time trial in Wieliczka on Sunday settles the matter for good.

Recent winners and records

YearWinnerTeam
2021João AlmeidaDeceuninck–Quick-Step
2022Ethan HayterINEOS Grenadiers
2023Matej MohoričTeam Bahrain Victorious
2024Jonas VingegaardVisma–Lease a Bike
2025Brandon McNultyUAE Team Emirates XRG

Ethan Hayter and João Almeida, both previous overall winners, are on the start list again. A third consecutive overall victory for UAE Team Emirates XRG would be unprecedented in the race's recent history.

Stage overview

Stage 1, Gdynia – Koszalin (234 km): the longest stage of the week runs over hilly roads in Pomerania, with the Mountain Prime on the Góra Chełmska shortly before the finish. A tough opener that could produce time gaps.

Stage 2, Międzyzdroje – Szczecin (151 km): a flat stage along the Baltic coast that will almost certainly end in a bunch sprint.

Stage 3, Gorzów Wielkopolski – Zielona Góra (193.5 km): a rolling route through Lubusz with a climbing prime at Przytok just before the line, though a sprint remains the most likely scenario.

Stage 4, Żagań – Karpacz (175.5 km): the first genuine mountain stage, with an uphill finish at Orlinek in Karpacz, where riders such as Paul Lapeira, Thibau Nys and Matej Mohorič have won in recent years. This is where the first GC gaps will appear.

Stage 5, Opole – Kocierz Resort (218.5 km): the longest mountain stage of the week, featuring the climbs of Góra Św. Anny and the Przegibek pass ahead of a final climb to Kocierz Resort.

Stage 6, Bukovina Resort – Bukowina Tatrzańska (126 km): short but, with almost 3000 metres of climbing, the hardest stage of the race, with the Bukovina wall in Gliczarów forming a tough run-in to the finish. This is the stage that could turn the GC upside down.

Stage 7, Wieliczka (12.4 km, time trial): the individual time trial at the Wieliczka salt mine decides overall victory. Riders with time-trialling ability can still make up seconds, or even minutes, here.

For the general classification, entrants include João Almeida and Ethan Hayter, both previous overall winners of this race, alongside teammates such as Jhonatan Narváez and Michał Kwiatkowski. Aleksandr Vlasov and Frederik Wandahl lead Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, while Alec Segaert of Bahrain Victorious, a young all-rounder with time-trialling ability, could be a challenger on the final day in Wieliczka.

The 2026 route combines a demanding opening week with three uphill finishes and a time trial hard enough to tip the balance of the general classification. Climbers with a solid time trial in their legs have an edge over pure climbing specialists. Wilco Kelderman, racing this season in the jersey of Dutch national champion, still has no WorldTour victory to his name after 160 top-10 finishes at that level, and is among the riders for whom this route offers opportunities. In the bunch sprints of stages 2 and 3, a battle is shaping up between fast men such as Jonathan Milan, Jordi Meeus, Paul Magnier and Olav Kooij.

Tour de Pologne 2026 – routekaart

Tour de Pologne 2026: GC favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Andreas Leknessund

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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