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Olympic Games Paris 2024 - Time Trial

Thursday 25 July 2024 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Saturday July 27th 2024: Olympic Games 2024 - Individual Time Trial (32.4KM)

Who will win the Olympic Time Trial with the men and women according to the computer? The time-trial starats and finishes at Point Alexandre III and is 32.4 kilometers. It is the first time in history both the men's and women's ITT is raced at the same course over the same distance. Paris is a perfect location for this beautiful event. 

The route is mainly flat (only 150 meters of elevation gain) with long straight stretches, which benefits the riders with a lot of raw power. The Bois de Vincennes has a number of technical sections and corners, but in general it is a course for pure time trialists with straight sections where riders can develop speed.

Profile Olympic Games 2024 - ITT
Route Olympic Games 2024 - ITT

History and stats

In 1996, Miguel Indurain was the first winner of the Olympic time trial. After stripping Hamilton (2000), Viatcheslav Ekimov was awarded the 2000 gold medal and he also won the 2004 edition. Ekimov is not the only multiple winner, as Fabian Cancellara also managed to triumph twice: Beijing 2008 and his last professional race in Rio de Janeiro (2016). Cancellara is also the record holder with 4 participations in the Olympic time trial. Tom Dumoulin managed to win silver for the Netherlands in the last two editions. While 2016 still felt like a loss, the silver medal behind teammate Roglic (and ahead of teammate Rohan Dennis) in Tokyo is one of the highlights of the Dutchman's career. As title defender, Primoz will not be at the start this Saturday.

The defending female champion is also not in Paris to ride the time trial. Annemiek van Vleuten will have plenty to say as an analyst, but we will have a new Olympic time trial champion. Van Vleuten's gold medal is historically given her crash from winning position in the Rio de Janeiro road race and the silver medal she won a week earlier in the Tokyo road race. Before Van Vleuten it was Kristin Armstrong who won three gold medals. In 2016, the American was 43 years old when she won. Anna van der Breggen, who may be back in 2028, rode to bronze in Tokyo. Leontien van Moorsel is also on the honors list here with two Olympic titles. Can Ellen van Dijk uphold the honor for the Netherlands after a quick comeback from her pregnancy and complicated ankle fracture?

 

Computer's favourites in more detail

Men

  • Joshua Tarling: The British time trial champion has never finished outside the podium in a professional time trial and consistently outperforms the computer's predictions. That makes him the big favourite according to the model. The young rising star is made for this job and may benefit from the other goals of the other big contenders.
  • Fillippo Ganna: Ganna is a two-time world champion and the specialist par excellence. He showed in the Giro that he is in good shape in both the flat time trial and the time trial with a lot of elevation gain (2nd behind Pogacar). The question is whether Ganna is fully focused given his ambitions on the track these Olympics.
  • Remco Evenepoel: Remco is the current world time trial champion and has shown his good shape with a podium finish in the Tour the France GC. However, the question is whether he is fresh enough to compete for the win here. He remains a special rider, so if anyone should be able to do it, it's him.

Women

  • Chloé Dygert: She has only ridden 3 races this year and has suffered a lot from injuries, but she has already shown that she can prepare herself for a World Championship or the Olympic Games without many races in preparation.
  • Grace Brown; Has announced her retirement from cycling and will stop after this season. How great would it be if this could be done with an Olympic medal. She scored well at the Games and World Championships before.
  • Ellen van Dijk; Does not have a flawless preparation with a broken ankle shortly before the Games. Despite the flawed preparation, the computer still sees her as one of the favorites and as a podium candidate.

Olympic Games 2024 - Prediction ITT Men Elite

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Remco Evenepoel

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

Olympic Games 2024 - Prediction ITT Women Elite

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Ellen van Dijk

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling


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