Saturday August 4th 2024: Parijs - Parijs (158 km)

Who will win the women's road race at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games according to the computer? The women's road race during the Paris Olympic Games covers 158 kilometers and 1,700 meters of elevation gain. The final consists of three laps in the Montmartre district, each featuring a cobblestone climb of 1 kilometer at 6.5%. The finish is 9.5 kilometers further on, in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower. The women's course closely resembles that of the men's, but it is shorter and the climbs are packed closer together. There are a total of nine climbs in the 158 kilometers.

The Olympic road race starts at the Jardins du Trocadéro, established in 1937 for the World Exhibition. With the Eiffel Tower on the opposite side of the Seine, the riders head in the other direction, out of the city towards the first climb of the day, the Côte des Gardes (1.9 kilometers at 6%). The route continues past the Palace of Versailles, and after 48 kilometers, the second climb appears: the Côte de Port-Royal (1 kilometer at 5%). In Auffargis, the riders reach the westernmost point of the route. Then, they return to the city through the forests of Rambouillet. Next, the Côte de Cernay-la-Ville (1.1 kilometers at 3.9%) opens a section of four climbs within 30 kilometers: the Côte de Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse (1.3 kilometers at 6.3%), Côte de Châteaufort (900 meters at 5.7%), and Côte du Pavé des Gardes (1.3 kilometers at 6.5%). After the last summit, there are still 68 kilometers to go. The riders pass the Louvre and reach the 18.4-kilometer city circuit through Montmartre, which is also the final circuit in the men's road race. This district is situated on a hill, which is quite noticeable. The Butte Montmartre is a cobblestone climb of 1 kilometer at 6.5%, and since the riders complete the circuit three times, they have to tackle this climb three times. After the third and final ascent of Butte Montmartre, there are still 9.5 kilometers to go. The riders descend to the Seine and race along the water to the Pont d'Iéna. The finish is on the other side of the bridge, at the Jardins du Trocadéro, where the start was also located.

History and stats

The women's road race was first held at the 1984 Games in Los Angeles, with the Americans winning gold and silver in their home country with Carpenter-Phinney (Taylor's mother) and Twigg. In subsequent editions, Zijlaard-van Moorsel, Jeannie Longo, Nicole Cooke and Marianne Vos (2012) among others managed to win Olympic gold. Jeannie Longo was already there in 1984 and started 7 times for France, by far the most participations ever of all men and women. Marianne Vos finished in the top 10 in all her 4 participations (2008-2021), with gold in London as the highlight.

Besides the Netherlands (4 winners), Australia is the only country to have won multiple gold medals in this event (2x). The Germans have already been on the podium 4 times, but have never won. Just like the Italians, who have also never won the women's Olympic road race. However, Elisa Longo Borghini is the only woman besides the other 'Longo' (Jeannie with silver and gold) to win two medals in the road race. Longo Borhini won two bronze behind Kiesenhofer and Van Vleuten (Tokyo 2021) and Van der Breggen and Johansson (Rio de Janeiro 2016).

Main contenders

There are 10 country teams with more than 2 participants. Great Britain, with 5 participants, is the largest team at the start. Then there are 4 countries with 4 participants in the race: Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Additionally, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, and Poland have strong teams with 3 participants each. Most names in the computer's top-15 prediction also come primarily from these teams.

The Netherlands has Lorena Wiebes, who has been designated as the leader for this race by the team, as the computer's top favorite. As plan B, Demi Vollering is also in the computer's top 3. Marianne Vos is also found in the top 10 of the prediction, providing multiple options to play. Ellen van Dijk was allowed to ride the individual time trial, provided she agreed to a domestique role in the road race, so we will see her frequently at the front of the peloton early in the race.

Belgium is here with leader Lotte Kopecky, who is just behind Lorena Wiebes in the prediction. She has 3 good helpers to neutralize any attacks from sub-top favorites.

France has 3 participants here, and according to the computer, Juliette Labous has the best chance to aim for a top classification in her home country. Audrey Cordon-Ragot and Victoire Berteau will have to go for the breakaway if they want a chance at a good classification.

Italy also has a strong contingent with 4 participants who often perform well in championship races. The computer sees both Elisa Longo Borghini and Elisa Balsamo as favorites among these 4. Elisa Longo Borghini will need to attack and drop the sprinters, while Elisa Balsamo is not to be underestimated in a finish with a small group.

Great Britain have both Pfeiffer Georgi and Anna Henderson as co-leaders for the win. Both will need to arrive in a smaller group without top sprinters, so an early or late attack will likely be their tactic.