x

Olympic Games Paris 2024 - Road Race (ME)

Tuesday 30 July 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Saturday August 3rd 2024: Parijs - Parijs (273 km)

Who will win the Road Race of the Olympic Games of Paris 2024 according to the computer? The race starts and finishes in Paris and is 273 km and contains 2.800 meters of altitude gain. A spicy combination of the first 4 cycling monuments of the year, that is how we can summarize the Olympic road race in and around Paris. The riders will race a long and hilly course with a few sections of cobblestones in the absolute finale. After the start in Paris, the riders leave for a ‘lap’ of more than 200 kilometers southwest of Paris. This lap includes 10 official climbs, although it should be noted immediately that in addition to these climbs, there are also many uncategorized hills on the course. All these hills are not extremely steep and not extremely long, but they do ensure that lactic acid will build up in the legs of the riders. After 214 km of racing, the riders enter Paris again and the absolute finale begins.

Focus to this finale is a city circuit of 18.6 km that has to be completed twice. This circuit includes 3 hills: the Côte de la Butte Montmartre (1.1 km at 5.6%), the Côte de Sérurier (1.7 km at 3.5%) and the Côte de Belville (1.5 km at 3.4%). There are no ‘double-digit’ gradients on these hills either, although Montmartre is around 8% and the end of the Belville also touches upon 7% and should not be underestimated. An additional obstacle is the fact that both the Montmartre and the Belville are largely paved with cobblestones. With all the kilometres and altitude gain in your legs, there is ample opportunity to deliver a decisive blow on this city circuit. After all the hills mentioned have been climbed twice, the final climb of the Montmartre follows at a good 10 km from the finish. From the top it is still 9.4 km to the finish. After a three-stage descent, the last 6 km are almost completely flat. The last 3 km run along the Seine and after a final bend 300 meters from the finish, the riders finish at the foot of the Eiffel Tower. The conclusion: a very selective course with a beautiful finale in the center of Paris: a real treat!

📺Eurosport 1 (11.30 u), Sporza (12.00 u)
⏰11.00 u
🏁18.15 u
⛅️Cloudy, light wind, 27 degrees

Olympic Games 2024 - profile
Olympic Games 2024 - route
Olympic Games 2024 - route circuit

 

History and stats

The Olympic road race is a special race. For both Carapaz (Tokyo 2021) and Van Avermaet (Rio 2016), winning Olympic gold was a career-defining moment. While the race had little status among professional cyclists until 2000, this is different today. Almost all the big one-day specialists (except for a few strong Belgians and Tadej Pogacar) will be at the start in Paris on Saturday.

With 6 victories, an Italian has won the Olympic road race most often. Host country France has won 4 times, the last time in 1948. The Dutch have been waiting for another Olympic champion in road cycling since 1972. Belgium is by far the strongest team at the start. The four Belgians (Stuyven, van Aert, Evenepoel and Benoot) scored almost twice as many points last season as the second strongest team: Denmark with Bjerg, Skjelmose, Pedsersen and Morkov. The two Portuguese at the start (Rui Costa and Nelson Oliveira) have most experience at the Olympics: together the competed in 5 Olympic road races. The only other participants who competed more than once are Arashiro (3), Woods, Skujins and Sepúlveda (2 starts). Alejandro Valverde and the Brazilian Fisher are the only riders with 5 Olympic participations in the men's road race.

Last Sunday, Wout van Aert won his second Olympic medal (bronze in the time trial) after finishing second in the road race in 2021. This makes Wout van Aert the first male rider to win a medal in all 4 major championship events (World Championship time trial and road, Olympic Games time trial and road). The only riders besides Van Aert who won a medal in both the time trial and the road race were Jan Ullrich (gold in the road race and silver in the time trial in 2000) and Fabian Cancellara (gold in the time trial in 2008 and 2016 and silver on the road in 2008). Van Aert's compatriot, Remco Evenepoel, became the first rider to win gold in 3 different major events by winning gold in the time trial in Paris and can become the next rider to win a medal in the 4 major championships on Saturday.

If 'MVDP' successfully completes his gold hunt, he will be the third rider in history to become both World Champion and Olympic Champion on the road. Paolo Bettini (2004) and compatriot Hennie Kuiper (1972) preceded him, but only became World Champion some years after their Olympic title.

Olympic Games Paris 2024 - Favourites Road Race (ME)

Computer prediction💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Mads Pedersen

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling


Compare riders