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GP Québec 2026 - prediction

Friday 11 September 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers
Race: GP Québec

Friday 11 September 2026: GP Québec – Plaines d'Abraham, Québec (206 km)

The fifteenth edition of GP Québec is raced over 206 kilometres, split into twenty laps of a modified, 10.3 kilometre city circuit around the Plaines d'Abraham. The route totals roughly 2,780 metres of climbing, meaning that despite the shorter lap than last year, the course has become tougher. That makes GP Québec one of the hilliest routes on the WorldTour calendar: none of the climbs is particularly long or extremely steep on its own, but the repetition of the same steep sections adds up to a considerable amount of climbing over the full distance.

Each lap begins and ends around Avenue George VI on the Plaines d'Abraham. The route then continues over the undulating Grande Allée, where the profile is relatively calm and teams get the chance to reposition for their leader after the previous pass by the finish. Halfway around the loop, the route descends towards Boulevard Champlain on the bank of the Saint Lawrence River, the lowest point of the circuit. That stretch along the water is usually the calmest part of the lap, although the pace does pick up there in the closing stages of the race: everyone wants to be at the front before the road climbs again.

The climb that follows is the Côte de la Montagne, 600 metres long with an average gradient of 9 percent and sections up to 13 percent. At the top of the côte the race is not yet over: the road keeps climbing towards the Plaines d'Abraham, with a final kilometre of around 3 percent to the line on Avenue George VI. This two-part finale is covered twenty times, with progressively less recovery time between passes as the race goes on. In the final laps, after almost five hours of racing, the same 600 metres becomes a considerably harder effort than during the early passes earlier in the race.

In the recent history of the race, bunch sprints and late attacks have alternated. Michael Matthews won the race three times thanks to his ability to digest repeated short climbs while still being fast enough for a group sprint. Last year Julian Alaphilippe opted to attack and rode solo to victory in what became one of his last major wins before his retirement. That scenario regularly recurs in Québec: when a rider builds enough of a gap on the final Côte de la Montagne, the flatter closing stretch towards Avenue George VI is often just long enough to hold that margin, while attacking too early carries the risk of being caught again.

The startlist for 2026 is considered strong, partly because this year's race also serves as an early test of strength ahead of the World Championships road race, held later this month in nearby Montréal. Remco Evenepoel, Isaac Del Toro and Paul Seixas are named as the main favourites, alongside a group of punchers and attackers who tend to handle the repeated short climbs well as the closest challengers. The route lends itself both to a longer solo breakaway in the final laps and to a decisive sprint from a select group after the last Côte de la Montagne.

GP Québec 2026 – profiel

GP Québec 2026 – route

GP Québec 2026: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

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