📈Who made most progress in sprinting?

Which riders improved their sprint stats the most during the Giro d'Italia of 2023? Computer knows: today the sprint-score. The computer model updates all 13 individual indicators on a daily basis. Based on results in the past 3 years, the course and the quality of the startlist, the model calculates the strenght of riders (score between 20 and 100). By comparing these stats at 2 random moments, we are able to analyse which riders improved the most in that period.

The sprint strength shows the ability of a rider to finish off a sprint of a (large) group after a flat stage.

10 biggest improvers

In order to find the 10 riders who made most progress, stats are compared of 176 Giro d'Italia participants on May 6th and May 29th. The 10 Big Giro Improvers in sprinting are:

10: Arne Marit (+8: 70>78)

According Arne Marit he should have won at least 1 bunchsprint in this Giro, but he failed to do so. His top-results in sprint-stages resulted in a big improvement of Marit's sprint-stat. After the Giro he will be one of the riders considered by the computer in stages expected to end in a sprint.

9: David Dekker (+9: 57>66)

Dekker only sprinterd two times before he left the Giro due to 'burning lungs'. Anyhow, the computer detected his ability to sprint. Dekker improved his sprinting skill with 9 points. Most likely '66' will not be the highest he could rank.

8: Charlie Quarterman (+9: 30>39)

Sprinting is still not his specialty, but by finishing in the bunch Quarterman improved his sprint-stat a lot. From 30 to 39 during the Giro.

7: Martin Marcellusi (+10: 41>51)

Marce-who? Yes, indeed: Martin Marcellusi. The young Italian from Green Project-Bardiani contested in a couple of bunchsprints which resulted in 3 top-20 results. He will still not end up as the favourite in a sprint-stage, but who knows what lies ahead of him.

6: Derek Gee (+10: 36>46)

Gee did not try to win bunchsprints, but he finished top-5 in 5 stages this Giro. The computer ranks his quality to do well in sprints of a small group, which resulted in 10 points progress for the Canadian. 

5: Marius Mayrhofer (+11: 56>67)

Mayrhofer had to share the sprint-opportunities with Alberto Dainese at team DSM. Dainese dit win a stage, but Mayhofer's best result was 5th in stage 2. After he won the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Race some might have expected him to do better. The computer-model ranks him at 67 after the Giro, he will have to improve some more before he wil predicted as winner of bunchsprints in the future.

4: Lennard Kämna (+11: 46>57)

This is a mistake, right? Kämna one of the riders with most progress in sprinting? No, it's true according to the computer-model. His sprint improvement is a result of his GC-battle. GC-riders generally try to stay up front in flat stages to avoid crashes or splits in the peloton. Kämna finished top-25 in all stages that finished in a bunchsprint this Giro. Given his low sprint-score before the Giro, the computer classifies this approach as improvement in sprinting. It will help to predict the ranking of GC-riders in flat-stages, even though Lenny will never compete for the win in a bunchsprint. 

3: Alex Kirsch (+12: 56>68)

Alex Kirsch is ranked as the rider who made third most progress in sprinting. Team-leader Pedersen did not finish the Giro, which gave leadout-specialist Kirsch the opportunity to go for his own success. The second place behind Cavendish in stage 21 was his best performane. In the computer predictions Kirsch will be recognized for his lead-out capacities, but took advantage to improve his own sprint-stats as well.

2: Eddie Dunbar (+13: 34>47)

Dunbar to rank second again? Why? Just as with Kämna, the computer picked up on the GC-ambitions of Dunbar. GC-riders generally try to stay up front in flat stages to avoid crashes or splits in the peloton. Dunbar finished top-20 in several stages that finished in a bunchsprint this Giro. Given his low sprint-score before the Giro, the computer classifies this approach as an improvement in sprinting. It will help to better predict the ranking of GC-riders in flat-stages.

1: Jonathan Milan (+22: 65>87)

It's not a suprise that Jonathan Milan is the rider who made most progression in sprinting. Before the Giro it was clear that Milan is fast, but it remained unclear whether he could compete in flat bunchsprints in Grand Tours. Milan scored more than half of all career-points in the Giro, so it's understandable that the computer did not classify him as sprint-favourite yet. With some more experience in positition and timing, Milan will become most certainly a favourite in future sprint stages he contests. 22 points improvement!

Ranking after Giro

To conclude, let's compare the best sprinters according to the computer before and after the Giro. It's Mads before and Mads after. His stage-win gave him enough points to remain the best sprinter on the Giro startlist. Our biggest improver Milan is the 10th best sprinter after 21 stages. All others are more or less ranked equally. 7 stages ended in a bunchsprint and the sprinters took the opportunity to improve their stats.