Giro d'Italia 2023 - Who made most progress in GC?

Wednesday 31 May 2023 • Stats

Daniël Herbers

📈Who made most progress in GC?

Which riders improved their GC stats the most during the Giro d'Italia of 2023? Computer knows: today the GC-score. The computer model updates all 13 individual indicators on a daily basis. Based on results in the past 3 years, the course and the quality of the startlist, the model calculates the strenght of riders (score between 20 and 100). By comparing these stats at 2 random moments, we are able to analyse which riders improved the most in that period.

The GC strength shows the ability of a rider to finish high in the General Classification of a stage-race.

10 biggest improvers

In order to find the 10 riders who made most progress, stats are compared of 176 Giro d'Italia participants on May 6th and May 29th. The 10 Big Giro Improvers in GC are:

10: Warren Barguil (+9: 61>70)

Barguil came to the Giro with one clear goal: to complete his trilogy of stage-wins in all three Grand Tours. He failed. By finishing 17th in the GC, after several DNFs, Barguil improved his GC-score with 9 points.

9: Lennard Kämna (+10: 74>84)

Kämna chose a different approach this Giro. The breakaway specialist aimed for GC. It resulted in a Giro characterized by continuity and a 9th place in GC. It remains to be seen whether he could have achieved the same or a better result with Kämna-approach of winning stages.

8: Nicolas Prodhomme (+11: 40>51)

His GC-stats are still average, but Prodhomme gained 11 points. Finishing 25th while helping his teammate Aurélien Paret-Peintre to defend his GC-position is a solid result. Will he aim for a better result in the future?

7: Einer Rubio (+11: 69>80)

Just outside top-10 in GC and one of the riders who progressed the most in average score: Einer Augusto Rubio. In his next stage-race participation he will be one of the favourites with a GC score of 80.

6: Bruno Armirail (+12: 54>66)

It is not a big surprise to find Bruno Armirail in this list of GC-improvers. Armirail took the pink jersey from Geraint Thomas and defended his jersey into week 3 of the Giro. It was very suprising to see him defending his GC-position in the final stages. Computer knows what he did and rewarded him with +12 on riding general classifications.

5: Andreas Leknessund (+13: 71>84)

Leknessund was only the second Norwegian rider to receive the leader jersey in the Giro. Leknessund did not crack after he took the jersey from Remco Evenepoel after stage 4. He finished 8th in Rome after 21 stages. The DSM prospect for GC-riding finally showed his potential in a big stage race. With a score of 82 he will be one of the better riders in computer predicitons of the future.

GC verbetering Leknessund
Stats GC progress Leknessund

4: Derek Gee (+16: 33>49)

We cannot skip Derek Gee in a ranking of GEEE-C improvers. Gee finished 2nd in 4 stages, 2nd in points classification, 2nd in KOM classification and... 22nd in the final GC. The computer gave him 16 more points on his GC quality compared to the start of the Giro. Gee is the rider of this Geeero d'Italia.

Gee GC verbetering
Stats GC progress Gee

3: Ilan Van Wilder (+17: 55>72)

Ilan Van Wilder travelled to Italy with one goal: to help his leader Evenepoel defend the pink jersey. Unfortunaly Evenepoel did not finish and Van Wilder and Serry were the only survivors for Soudal-QuickStep. Van Wilder made the best of it which did not result in a stage-win. He was in great shape though, he finished 12th in the GC. He improved his GC-stat with 17 points and is ranked at 72 after the Giro. But looks of the rider-card definitely made most progress.

Verbetering GC Van Wilder
Stats GC progress Van Wilder

2: Eddie Dunbar (+20: 60>80)

Dunbar made secondmost progression in average score. With 20 points improvement Eddie also ranks second in the list of most improved GC-riders during the Giro. Dunbar started racing for Team Jayco AlUla to get his shot at a GC in a Grand Tour. He succeeded at his first attempt: 7th.

Verbetering Dunbar
Stats GC progress Dunbar

1: Laurens De Plus (+32: 39>71)

Not a single kilometer did Laurens De Plus race to improve his own GC position, but still he finished 10th and is the rider who made most progress in GC. Since 2019 De Plus did only participate in a handful of big stage-races which is the reason why he only scored 39 points before the Giro. In Rome he had 71 points. Laurens de Plus is the rider who made most GC progress in the Giro of 2023.

Verbetering De Plus
Stats GC progress De Plus

Ranking after Giro

To conclude, let's compare the best GC-riders before and after the Giro. Primoz Roglic was the big favourite and already the best GC-rider before the Giro according the computer. Roglic lived up to the expectation and improved his GC-stat from 96 to 100, the highest score possible. Because of his DNF, Evenepoel is no longer the second-best GC rider among the 176 Giro participants. Almeida (96 points) and Thomas (95 points) are now ranked 2 and 3. Some other dropouts like Uran, Carthy and Vlasov lost some positions while Caruso, Pinot and Arensman improved their GC-stat. Rankings changed and the computer will have to deal with these new stats while predicting the next GC in a stage-race.

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