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European Championships ME 2026 - prediction RR

Thursday 1 October 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Sunday 4 October 2026: European Championships road race men – Ljubljana – Šenčur (196.3 km)

The elite men race the 196.3-kilometre road race of the UEC European Road Championships on Sunday 4 October, with 2,571 metres of elevation gain along the way. It is the 11th edition of the European road championships since the event's restart in 2016, and the first time a road championship of this scale has been held in Slovenia. The route combines a long, undulating approach with a finishing circuit that features the same short, steep climb five times.

Route

After a neutralised section of nine kilometres, the race starts from Kongresni trg in Ljubljana heading north-west, past Škofja Loka. At Kranj, situated on the river Sava at the foot of the Alps, the route turns back east, without returning to Ljubljana. Via Kamnik and Komenda the course rolls gently throughout, until the riders reach the first finish-line passage after roughly seventy kilometres.

From there, a 22.1-kilometre loop is covered five times, with a total of 367 metres of elevation gain per lap. From Šenčur the road climbs gently via Olševek to Tupaliče, before a sharp right-hand bend marks the start of the Možjanca: 2.1 kilometres at 10.2%, with ramps of up to 15.8% in the final 200 metres. There is no immediate descent after the top: the road continues rolling for a further two kilometres towards Štefanja vas, ahead of a technical descent to the base station of the Krvavec cable car. The valley that follows is narrow and fast, and the final seven kilometres to the line in Šenčur are flat, with a slight rise in the closing metres before the finish. For the elite men, the Možjanca returns five times, amounting to roughly 10.5 kilometres of climbing at around 10%, all within the final 110 kilometres of the race.

The championships are scheduled from 2 to 7 October in Ljubljana and Gorenjska, five days after the conclusion of the World Championships in Montréal on 27 September. Last year's men's road race was held in the Ardèche, with more elevation gain than this year. The time trials on Wednesday 7 October use one lap of the same finishing circuit around Šenčur, with the same climb and the same descent.

EK wegwedstrijd mannen 2026 – profiel

EK wegwedstrijd mannen 2026 – route

Recent editions

YearWinnerCountry
2025Tadej PogačarSlovenia
2024Tim MerlierBelgium
2023Wout van AertBelgium
2022Fabio JakobsenNetherlands
2021Sonny ColbrelliItaly

Two consecutive editions, in 2023 and 2024, went to Belgian riders.

Local

The route passes through Komenda after roughly seventy kilometres, the birthplace of defending champion Tadej Pogačar. He took the European title last year after a 75-kilometre solo, with Remco Evenepoel second and Paul Seixas third.

Favourites and scenarios

The UEC entry list includes Remco Evenepoel (Belgium), Primož Roglič and Jakob Omrzel (Slovenia), Juan Ayuso (Spain), Mads Pedersen (Denmark), Giulio Pellizzari (Italy) and João Almeida (Portugal). Tadej Pogačar was on that list, but according to his team and the Slovenian federation he will not start.

Remco Evenepoel is one of the names to watch. The European road title is the only major championship still missing from his palmarès: he has already won the world road title (2022), multiple world and European time trial titles, and Olympic gold in both the time trial and the road race (2024). Last year he finished second, behind Tadej Pogačar.

Scenario 1 – Selection on the Možjanca: After five ascents of 2.1 km at 10.2%, only a small group of climbers should remain on the final lap, with Evenepoel, Roglič, Ayuso, Pellizzari and Almeida the obvious names. Anyone who attacks from that group must hold on alone, or with a handful of riders, over the flat final 7 km to Šenčur.

Scenario 2 – Small-group sprint: If a group of strong riders crests the climb together, the flat finish allows a sprint. Pedersen, Romain Grégoire (France) and Kévin Vauquelin (France) fit that profile.

Scenario 3 – Slovenian home race without Pogačar: Slovenia is counting on Roglič, Matej Mohorič and Omrzel, and could make the race hard early to drop the best climbers. With five passes of the Možjanca on the local circuit, that is a realistic tactic.

European Championships 2026 men: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Giulio Pellizzari

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling