Vuelta Espana Femenina 2024 - prediction

Friday 26 April 2024 • Blog

Arjan Zoer

La Vuelta Femenina 2024

From the team time trial in Valencia to the finish in Valdesquí, the Vuelta Espana Femenina will provide excitement. In this blog we will discuss the route, the contenders and the prediction of the general classification, Here is a link to the compete startlist with the skills of cyclists participating in this Vuelta


Stage 1 - Sunday April 28th: Valencia - Valencia (16km TTT)


The first stage is a team time trial over 16 kilometers. A flat course without too many bends. A great start for teams that are well attuned to each other. FDJ-SUEZ, CANYON//SRAM Racing and Lidl-Trek seem to be the favorites to battle for victory.

Stage 2 - Monday April 29th: Buñol/Bunyol - Moncofa (118.3km)

The second stage goes from Bunyol to Moncofa with one climb of the third category; Puerto de L'Oronet of 5.9 km at 4.3%. The top is 38.3 kilometers from the finish and there is therefore a good chance that we will see a regrouping and we will head for a sprint. Top sprinters such as Charlotte Kool and Marianne Vos will want to use their teams to make this possible, but second-line sprinters such as Georgia Baker and Emma Norsgaard will also want to go for this opportunity.

Stage 3 - Tuesday April 30th: Lucena/Llucena - Teruel (130.2km)

The third stage has uneven terrain with one categorized climb; Alto Fuente de Rubielos with 6.1 km at 6.2%, but even then it continues to climb a little further and only goes downhill to the finish in the last 15 kilometers. Depending on the way the climbs are ridden, we will get a sprint from a smaller group here, but a late attacker could also be successful here.

Stage 4 - Wednesday May 1st: Molina de Aragón - Zaragoza (142.3km)

The fourth stage is a flat stage, or better said: a stage with a slightly descending profile. Therefore an ideal opportunity for the sprinters to aim for success. Top sprinters such as Charlotte Kool and Marianne Vos are favorites here.

Stage 5 - Thursday May 2nd: Huesca - Jaca (113.9km)

Stage five is the first stage with an uphill finish. The first ascent is of the 2nd category; Alto del Monasterio de San Juan de la Peña (18.5 km at 3%). This climb is especially long, but not that steep. The second ascent is; Alto del Fuerte Rapitán of 3.4 km at 7.9%. This is a stage for riders with classification ambitions. Favorites for this stage are; Demi Vollering, Katarzyna Niewiadoma, Juliette Labous and Elisa Longo Borghini. Real climbers such as Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, Evita Muzic, Gaia Realini or Marta Cavalli can also compete here for the day's victory.

Stage 6 - Friday May 3rd: Tarazona - La Laguna Negra. Vinuesa (132.1km)

The sixth stage has quite some uncategorized climbing in the first 30 kilometers, after which it is quite flat for about 90 kilometers to arrive at Laguna Negra. Desnivel of 6.5 km at 6.8%. The end of the climb in particular is very steep and will certainly cause differences in the results that will influence the general classification. It remains to be seen whether the classification riders will also fight for victory here, because the course also does not provide room for escapees who could already build up a space lead before the climb and perhaps we will get a surprising winner from an escape

Stage 7 - Saturday May 4th: San Esteban de Gormaz - Sigüenza (138.6km)

The seventh stage is designated as hilly, while the course looks relatively flat. This is because the last kilometer before the finish has gradients between 8% and 10%. This makes this more for a puncheur than for pure sprinters. According to the computer, favorites for this stage are riders like; Demi Vollering, Katarzyna Niewiadoma, Elisa Longo Borghini, Juliette Labous, Liane Lippert or Mavi Garcia.

Stage 8 - Sunday May 5: Distrito Telefónica - Valdesquí. Community of Madrid (89.5km)

The last stage is short, but perhaps even more spectacular. The 98.5 kilometers include 2 categorized climbs, the first Puerto de La Morcuera of 9.1 km at 6.8% and the finish is at Valdesquí of km 12.8 at 4.8%. The last 2 kilometers of that climb are flat and therefore from approximately 4 to 10 kilometers into the climb there is a continuous gradient of over 6.5% and even a kilometer of 8.4%. Plenty of room for the top riders to make or break the rankings here!  Demi Vollering, Katarzyna Niewiadoma, Juliette Labous, Elisa Longo Borghini and Gaia Realini are favorites here for the computer.

Favorites for General Classification

The computer sees Demi Vollering as the top favorite here. This year she has not had the best spring yet and in many interviews she indicates that she is disappointed about that and she wants to get her first victory in the national championship jersey of the Netherlands. Will that happen in this in this Vuelta Espagna Femenina? Where last year she lost a victory by 9 seconds behind Annemiek van Vleuten due to an unfortunate sanitary stop. Annemiek has retired, so the opposition will come from a different team. Lidl-Trek is here with Elisa Longo Borghini and Gaia Realini. Both built differently and therefore both a real challenger for Vollering in different terrains. Are they going to play off their numerical superiority? Katarzyna Niewiadoma had a great spring with a victory in La Fleche Wallonne. Last year she was 10th here and the data shows that she is in greater form this year. Juliette Labous is also in great form. She was also good here last year, but lost a lot of time on the last climb before the end, causing her to drop to seventh place. The computer thinks she will do better this year. Last year Ricarda Bauernfeind showed that she also has good climbing legs, and perhaps she can also play an outsider role this year.

Vuelta Espana Femenina 2024 - Prediction

Win %

🦄 Gaia Realini

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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