Vuelta a España 2026 - stage 11 prediction
Tuesday 1 September 2026 • Previews
Wednesday 2 September – Vuelta a España stage 11: Cartagena → Lorca (153.8 km)
Route
Stage 11 of the Vuelta a España 2026 runs from Cartagena to Lorca, in the province of Murcia. With 153.8 kilometres and one categorised climb, this is a day for the sprinters. Cartagena hosts a start for the first time since 2023, while Lorca welcomes a stage finish for the first time since 2010.
The first forty kilometres follow the coastline of the Costa Cálida. Along the way, the road climbs briefly twice: 1.8 km at 5.5% shortly after the start and 2.4 km at 4.7% further on. At Los Alcázares, the peloton leaves the coast. Flat roads through the region of Murcia follow, via Torre-Pacheco and Fuente Álamo to Totana. The intermediate sprint is located there at km 111.9.
In Totana, the day's only categorised climb begins at km 112.3: the Alto de Aledo (9.5 km at 4.2%), a third-category climb with its summit at km 121.8, 32 kilometres from the finish. From the top, the road descends and runs false-flat towards Lorca. The final 5 kilometres are completely flat: the peloton enters the city via roundabouts, heading for the finish on the Avenida del Presidente Adolfo Suárez.
Vuelta a España 2026 etappe 11 – hoogteprofiel
Vuelta a España 2026 etappe 11 – routekaart
Final kilometres
The summit of the Alto de Aledo lies 32 kilometres from the line. From there, the road descends until the final five kilometres, which are flat. The peloton enters Lorca via roundabouts and finishes on a straight avenue, wide enough for a bunch sprint.
Recent editions
Lorca last hosted a Vuelta finish in 2010. Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Transitions) won the sprint that day ahead of Mark Cavendish and Koldo Fernández, after a stage from Guadix to Lorca. Since then, the city disappeared from the map, apart from 2017, when Lorca was the departure point for the stage to the Calar Alto observatory.
Scenarios
A stage for the sprinters: Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Jordi Meeus and Bryan Coquard are eager to go. With the last climb 32 kilometres from the line, a flat finish with a bunch sprint seems most likely in Lorca.
Early breakaway riders stand little chance. After the top of the Alto de Aledo, almost thirty kilometres of descending and flat terrain remain to be bridged by the sprinters' teams.
Local
José Luis Faura Asensio (Burgos Burpellet BH) is the only rider from the region of Murcia in this Vuelta. He was born in Pliego, more than 20 kilometres from Lorca. Cartagena was founded by the Carthaginians in the third century BC. Lorca was hit by a severe earthquake in May 2011 and counts two important monuments: the Fortaleza del Sol castle and the collegiate church of San Patricio, the only one in Spain dedicated to the Irish saint Patrick.
Weather forecast
Expected in Lorca on Wednesday 2 September: mostly sunny with a maximum of 35.9°C and a minimum of 21.2°C. It will stay dry. In the final 50 km there is an east wind with gusts of up to 16.3 km/h.
Vuelta a España 2026 stage 11: favourites
The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):
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