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Tour de France 2026 - stage 5 prediction

Tuesday 7 July 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Wednesday 8 July – Tour de France stage 5: Lannemezan → Pau (158.3 km)

Route

Stage 5 of the Tour de France 2026 goes from Lannemezan to Pau over 158.3 kilometres. The stage is categorised as flat, with 1,600 metres of elevation gain. This is the first sprint stage of the edition, an opportunity that only arrives on the fifth day for the fast men.

The peloton departs from Lannemezan, on the edge of the Plateau de Lannemezan, and heads in a north-easterly direction towards Castelnau-Magnoac. It then follows a westward course through the Gers, via Trie-sur-Baïse, Mirande, Bassoues and Marciac. At Maubourguet, the route turns southwards along the Adour towards Vic-en-Bigorre, where the intermediate sprint is located at km 113.5.

After the intermediate sprint, the peloton heads westwards towards Baleix. At km 132.7, the Côte de Baleix begins (1.0 km at 8.8%), the only categorised climb of the day (Cat. 3). After the summit, there are still 25.6 kilometres to the finish in Pau, via Morlaàs and the city streets of the Paloise capital.

Tour de France 2026 etappe 5 – hoogteprofiel

Tour de France 2026 etappe 5 – routekaart

Final kilometres

The finish is on the Place de Verdun in Pau. From the D943, the peloton enters the city via Morlaàs and passes the A64. Several turns lead through the city streets: Boulevard de la Paix, Avenue Péboué, Boulevard Tourasse, Boulevard Jean Sarrailh, Avenue Jean Mermoz and Boulevard Champetier de Ribes. Via Rue Michelet, the riders reach the Place de Verdun. The final kilometre has a gradient of 0.5%: virtually flat. The Côte de Baleix (Cat. 3) lies 25.6 km from the finish and has no impact on the sprint formation.

Recent editions

Pau welcomes the Tour de France in 2026 for the 77th time. As a finish town, the city is a landmark in the history of the Grande Boucle. Three recent arrivals in Pau:

2024 – Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), sprint (stage 13, Agen–Pau, 165.3 km)
2019 – Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck–Quick-Step), individual time trial (stage 13)
2018 – Arnaud Démare (Groupama-FDJ), sprint (stage 18, Trie-sur-Baïse–Pau)

In 2026, stage 5 is only the first sprint opportunity for the fast men. In the editions from 2022 to 2024, sprinters had already featured before stage 5. This first chance only arriving on day five, just before the Pyrenees, has implications for the green jersey competition: the number of points from the intermediate sprint in Vic-en-Bigorre and the finish points in Pau are higher than previous years.

Scenarios

This is a straightforward sprint stage. The Côte de Baleix (1.0 km at 8.8%) at 25.6 km from the finish could keep a breakaway group in play, but the peloton will handle that climb in a controlled manner. Sprinters who survive the climb will play the leading role in Pau. The city finish on the Place de Verdun is virtually flat: the road rises in the final kilometre at 0.5%. That favours pure sprinters with a well-organised lead-out and an explosive final sprint. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) and Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM Team) are the logical contenders. In crosswinds during the opening phase towards the Gers, the peloton could split, but that scenario is unlikely on this route.

Local

Pau is the historic capital of Béarn and has around 78,500 inhabitants. In the Château de Pau, Henri of Navarre was born on 13 December 1553, the future French king Henry IV. The city has strong ties with the race: this is already the 77th time the Tour has visited Pau. Lannemezan, the start town of stage 5, is the birthplace of rugby player Antoine Dupont. The town lies on the edge of the Plateau de Lannemezan, with clear views of the Pyrenees.

Tour de France 2026 stage 5: Favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Mathieu van der Poel

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling