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Tour de France 2026 - stage 12 prediction

Wednesday 15 July 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

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Thursday 16 July – Tour de France stage 12: Circuit Nevers Magny-Cours → Chalon-sur-Saône (179.1 km)

Route

Stage 12 of the Tour de France 2026 connects the Magny-Cours circuit with Chalon-sur-Saône over 179.1 kilometres with 1,800 metres of elevation gain. The route passes through Nièvre and Saône-et-Loire, along the edge of the Morvan massif towards the flat Saône valley.

The peloton starts at the famous Formula 1 circuit, where the French Grand Prix was held from 1991 to 2008. After the start, the peloton heads towards Decize, where an intermediate sprint is located at km 45.8. The hilly middle section begins with the Côte de Lanty (km 76.5, 2.1 km at 4.0%) and continues to the Côte de Cuzy (km 97.8, 2.5 km at 4.5%). Both climbs are category 4 and will not cause any serious selection.

Via Montceau-les-Mines, the peloton reaches the third and final categorised climb: the Côte de Montagny-lès-Buxy (km 159.4, 2.7 km at 4.3%), located just under 20 kilometres from the finish. After the summit, the road descends to the Saône valley; the stage finishes in the centre of Chalon-sur-Saône.

Tour de France 2026 etappe 12 – hoogteprofiel

Tour de France 2026 etappe 12 – routekaart

Final kilometres

The Côte de Montagny-lès-Buxy finishes at km 160.2. After that comes a descent and around 18 kilometres of flat terrain towards the finish. The final kilometre has a gradient of 0.6%, virtually flat in practice. The road enters the city via Saint-Rémy, along the banks of the Saône.

Recent editions

Chalon-sur-Saône last hosted a Tour de France finish in 2019: Dylan Groenewegen (LottoNL-Jumbo) won stage 7, ahead of Caleb Ewan and Peter Sagan. Before that: Thierry Marie (1988, Tour stage 20) and Rik Van Linden (1975, Tour stage 19). In 2017, a stage of Paris-Nice also finished in Chalon, won by Sam Bennett.

Scenarios

The three climbs are too gentle to force a real selection. The Côte de Montagny-lès-Buxy lies just under 20 kilometres from the line: too far for an attack with sprint teams in pursuit. Sprinters will decide the outcome here. After stage 12, mountain stages and a time trial follow; stage 17 (Chambéry-Voiron) is an option for breakaway riders, while stage 21 (Thoiry-Paris, Champs-Élysées) could end in a sprint for puncheurs. Stage 12 is therefore likely the last chance for a classic mass sprint. In this Tour, sprinters have already won three stages: Olav Kooij (stage 5), Tim Merlier (stages 7 and 8). Merlier is the dominant sprinter in this edition; Jasper Philipsen has the lead-out of Mathieu van der Poel.

Local

Chalon-sur-Saône, in the Saône-et-Loire department, is historically an important trading centre along the Saône. The city is considered the birthplace of photography: Nicéphore Niépce (1765–1833) took the first permanent photograph here. No rider in the current Tour de France start list hails from Chalon-sur-Saône itself. On the approach to the finish, the peloton crosses the Côte Chalonnaise, one of the sub-regions of the Burgundy wine area.

Tour de France 2026 stage 12: Favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

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