Paris-Roubaix 2024 - Prediction

Friday 5 April 2024 • Previews

Tom Nederend

Sunday April 7th 2024: Compiegne - Roubaix (259.9km) 

Who will win Paris-Roubaix 2024 according to the computer? Paris-Roubaix will start in Compiegne and finishes after 259.9 km at the track in Roubaix. A stunning amount of 55.7km will be raced at cobbles: 21% of the total route. They are distributed across 29 sectors. First 100km will be at tarmac and than Hell arrives. Dylan van Baarle went solo at the 5th secteur before the finish, van der Poel at #4 (Carrefour l'Arbre). Keep an eye on the weather predictions: it could be wet cobbles on Sunday.

📺Eurosport 1 (10.30u), Sporza (13.30u), NPO 1 (13.10u)
⏰11.25 u
🏁17.15 u
⛅️Rainy, light wind, 17 degrees

Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - profiel
Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - profile
Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - parcours
Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - route
Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - kasseistroken
Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - cobbled sectors

Stats Paris-Roubaix 2024

The 121st edition of Paris-Roubaix will take place on Sunday. This makes it the most raced race of all Monuments, while Liège-Bastogne-Liège is the oldest Monument.

Paris-Roubaix is often won after a (long) solo. This happens more often in Roubaix than with the other monuments. So far it was won after a solo of at least 25 kilometers seventeen times, with impressive highlights from Boonen (53 km) and Tchmil (60 km). This implies that usually few riders cross the line within a minute of the winner. In the last twenty editions, an average of nine riders finished within 60 seconds, compared to thirteen riders in the Tour of Flanders and twenty riders at Liège.

Experience appears to pay off on the French cobblestones. The top 10 consists on average of the older riders from the peloton compared to the other big classics. You can also see this in the age of the winners. No fewer than 39 times the winner was 30+. Remarkably, the entire startlist is on average the youngest of all Monuments.

There is a lot of speedy pedaling on the way from Paris to Roubaix. The record for the fastest monument is held by PR 2023, with an average speed of 46.8 km/hour. The record for the number of victories in Roubaix is held by both De Vlaeminck and Boonen. They won PR four times in their career.

 Sunday, three former winners of the 'Hell of the North' will appear at the start: Degenkolb, Van Baarle and Van der Poel. Among the riders who could score a good results there are three debutants: Wellens, Bettiol and Girmay will defy the cobbled sectors for the first time.

Let's look at some statistical scenario's:

  • If Pedersen wins, he will be the first Dane to win Paris-Roubaix
  • If Van der Poel wins, it is the 13th time someone wins RVV and PR in one season (Cancellara 2013, Boonen 2012)
  • If Van der Poel wins, he will be second after Van Looy (1962) to win both RVV and PR in the rainbow-jersey.
  • If Van der Poel wins, it will the 8th time a reigning World Champion Road Race wins Paris-Roubaix (Sagan 2018).
  • If Philipsen wins, he is the fifth rider to win both MSR and PR in one year (van der Poel 2023, Degenkolb 2015).
  • If a rider from Alpecin-Deceuninck wins, it will be the first team in history to win the first three Monuments of a season.
  • If Tarling finishes top-5, he will be the youngest in top-5 of a Monument since Rik Van Steenbergen (1944), currently it is Antonio Morgado after hist top-5 last Sunday in RVV

29 cobbled sectors before we enter the hills next week. Be prepared! Ofcourse, we pray for a safe race and a proper run-in to the 'chicane' before Trouée d'Arenberg. À bientôt!

Parijs-Roubaix 2024 - Prediction

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Win %

🦄 Jonathan Milan

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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