Tour de France Femmes 2024 - prediction

The excitement is building, and expectations are high for the highly anticipated Tour de France Femmes 2024. This prestigious race promises to be a spectacle, with 154 cyclists, divided into 22 teams, taking on the challenge of an impressive course that winds through various regions and departments in France. This year, the world's best female cyclists will come together to compete for the coveted title.

The Tour de France Femmes, the prestigious female counterpart to the legendary men's race, highlights the progress and challenges of women's cycling. The first edition in this format in 2022 was a milestone for women's cycling, with Annemiek van Vleuten taking the victory, followed by Demi Vollering in 2023, who took the yellow leaderjersey from teammate Lotte Kopecky on the Tourmalet and extended her advantage in the final time trial.

Parcours

The Tour de France Femmes 2024 promises another thrilling race for 154 female cyclists, divided into 22 teams, with a challenging course through the Netherlands, Belgium, and France. You can find details about the course in this blog.

Favorites

The course includes 3 flatter stages, 1 short time trial, 2 hilly stages, and 2 uphill finishes. Therefore, we will provide an overview of the sprinters, time trial specialists, and puncheurs, concluding with the favorites for the overall victory in this Tour de France Femmes.

Top Sprinters

The absolute favorite in the sprints this year is Lorena Wiebes, who has consistently won in almost all the important sprints. She will be eager to win the first stage, allowing her to don the yellow jersey in her home country.

This year has not been the best for Charlotte Kool, who did secure her first victory of the year in the Baloise Ladies Tour, but in head-to-head sprints with Lorena, she seems to have fallen a step behind. Hopefully, she can bring something extra during the Tour in her home country.

For Lidl-Trek, Elisa Balsamo is at the start, and she is another sprinter to watch. Especially in slightly windy conditions, she could perform well. Last week, she was still active at the Olympics in both the road race and track events, where she finished fourth in the Team Pursuit.

A somewhat lesser-known rider is the 27-year-old Daria Pikulik from Human Powered Health, but this year she has already secured 2 wins in one-day races and seven podium finishes in sprints. She will undoubtedly mix it up in the sprints as well.

Last year, Marianne Vos couldn’t win a stage in the Tour de France Femmes, but perhaps starting in her home country this year will give her an extra boost. Her form seems to be in good shape, as otherwise, she wouldn't have won a silver medal in a tough race at the Olympics.

Top Individual Timetrial

Tuesday is a special day in the Tour de France Femmes, featuring both a morning and an afternoon stage. While this format was more common in the Tour's past, it hasn't been done since 1991. The morning stage is a short ride likely to end in a sprint, while the afternoon stage is a brief time trial over 6.3 kilometers, with the Erasmus Bridge and the Willems Bridge providing the only elevation changes in the course.

The newly crowned Olympic time trial champion Grace Brown will be at the start and she has the chance to create another highlight in her final year before retirement, by taking the stage win and possibly the yellow jersey.

The Dutch time trial champion, Riejanne Markus, has likely marked this day and stage as a key objective for this year. She wasn't seen at the Olympics as her spot was taken by Ellen van Dijk, but she was in good form during the Princess Anna Vasa Tour in Poland, where the entire Visma - Lease a Bike team performed well. Competing for a stage win and the yellow jersey in her home country could provide extra motivation.

Chloé Dygert is a strong in the individual timetrial and also an Olympic champion. Although she won bronze in the time trial, she took gold in the team pursuit, where she, along with Jennifer Valente, Lily Williams, and Kristen Faulkner (the latter two are also on the startlist), won this event.

The silver medail winner in the Olympics time trail, Anna Henderson, is in good form and on a short parcours he have a go at the stage win.

In addition to these top riders, Lorena Wiebes, on a good day with the yellow jersey as a goal, could surprise. Juliette Labous also has a strong time trial in her, and she showed good form at the Olympics, narrowly missing the podium with a 4th place finish. Demi Vollering will likely aim to assert her general classification ambitions by delivering a powerful performance in this first individual test.

Top Puncheurs

This Tour de France Femmes features two hilly stages where puncheurs and hill specialists can truly shine. Stage 4 partly follows the course of the Amstel Gold Race and the finale of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, while Stage 6 also presents a great opportunity for the climbers.

Liane Lippert had to miss the entire spring season due to a stress fracture in her hip that she sustained while running late last year. She has since competed in the Vuelta and the Giro, even winning a stage in the Giro before dropping out the following day. Although her season hasn’t been entirely smooth, she will certainly be aiming to compete for a stage win in this Tour, just as she did last year.

Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig also missed much of the spring after suffering a sacral fracture in a crash during Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Following a long rehabilitation period, her return to racing was somewhat tentative, but she showed strong form during the recent Giro. With another month of preparation, she could aim for a repeat of her 2022 success, when she won Stage 3.

Marianne Vos underwent surgery on her iliac artery in August 2023. After a winter spent recovering (during which she skipped cyclocross), she returned this spring and proved she’s still a force to be reckoned with.

In the Canyon//SRAM Racing team, there are several strong puncheurs, but Elise Chabbey stands out, having finished 4th in Liège-Bastogne-Liège this year, just behind Grace Brown, Elisa Longo Borghini, and Demi Vollering.

Other riders who could make an impact in these stages, either by joining the final selection or launching an early or late attack, include Kristen Faulkner, who comes into the race with strong form and morale after winning two gold medals. Pfeiffer Georgi is improving year after year and can finish well in a smaller group. The same goes for Shirin van Anrooij, who, in a team like Lidl-Trek with multiple leaders, could pull off something special in an attack. Katarzyna Niewiadoma has already shown this spring that she excels in hilly terrain, but she might need to conserve her energy with the crucial final two days of the race in mind, which will be key for a strong overall classification.

Top Favorites for the General Classification

Or perhaps we should speak of a single top favorite: Demi Vollering. She is seen as the overwhelming favorite, with a 77.6% chance of victory according to the computer. This is an unprecedented score at CyclingOracle. If there's anything to critique about Demi's chances, it's that the SD Worx team isn't as strong as in previous years, when multiple top riders shared the burden of leading the race. While the team is still solid, Demi stands out far above the rest and will have to carry the team's leadership solo.

The computer saw Elisa Longo Borghini of Lidl-Trek as the main competitor. However, she has withdrawn due to the effects of a crash and will not participate this year.

For the podium and perhaps victory, the computer gives the most chances to Juliette Labous, who, as a French rider, naturally wants to finish high in the general classification. This year is particularly special for her, as she has announced that after 8 years, she will be moving from team DSM-Firmenich PostNL to FDJ-Suez. It would be a fitting way to cap off her career with the team if she were to secure a podium finish this year. She finished 4th in 2022 and 5th last year in the Tour de France Femmes, so she's been close.

Another strong podium contender is Katarzyna Niewiadoma, who has finished third in the Tour de France Femmes twice. She had a strong spring season but had to abandon this year's Vuelta and has yet to make it to the podium in a multi-day race since. The final two grueling days will be crucial for the general classification, and she often performs well in such conditions.

Evita Muzic is the second French rider the computer places in the top 10. Last year, she was hampered by a crash and had to withdraw, but this year she seems poised to be the designated leader for FDJ-Suez. Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig is returning to top form after a difficult start, but she is leaving the team at the end of the year. Evita, who has a contract until 2027, will likely be eager to challenge, her teammate of next year, Juliette Labous for the title of the best French rider and perhaps podium in this Tour de France Femmes 2024.

The remaining contenders are listed below in the computer's prediction.