Tour de France 2026 – KOM prediction

The KOM classification

The polka dot jersey belongs to the King of the Mountains. In cycling, this is known as the KOM, and its wearer is considered the best climber in the race. In the Tour de France, a rider earns mountain points by being the first to summit a categorised climb. Categories range from 4 (easiest) to HC (hors catégorie, hardest). On an HC climb, 20 points go to the first rider over the top; on a category 1 climb, 10 points; category 2, 5 points; category 3, 2 points; and category 4, 1 point.

The 2026 Tour de France features eight mountain stages and five mountain finishes, spread across five mountain ranges: the Pyrenees, the Massif Central, the Vosges, the Jura and the Alps. The total elevation gain over 3,333 km is 54,450 metres. Alongside the polka dot jersey, two special prizes are awarded: the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, for the first rider over the Col du Galibier (2,642 m, the highest point of the race, in stage 20), and the Souvenir Jacques Goddet, for the first over the Col du Tourmalet in stage 6. The Galibier has been climbed 39 times in Tour history; the Tourmalet has appeared 62 times, making it the most frequently climbed mountain in Tour history. Alpe d'Huez, the finish in stages 19 and 20, has featured in 32 previous Tour editions.

Recent winners

Key climbs

The mountain points programme of the 2026 Tour is spread across all three weeks, with peaks in the Pyrenees, the Vosges-Jura and the Alps. These are the stages with the most categorised climbs and mountain points:

• Stage 3: Granollers – Les Angles (195.9 km, mountain finish): the first mountain day of the Tour in the Pyrenees, with several categorised climbs and an uphill finish in Les Angles. Good chance for the early breakaway.
• Stage 6: Pau – Gavarnie-Gèdre (186.2 km, mountain finish): the race crosses the Col du Tourmalet (17.0 km at 7.4%), the most climbed mountain in Tour history. The first rider over the Tourmalet wins the Souvenir Jacques Goddet. The finish in the new finish town of Gavarnie-Gèdre is uphill, meaning GC riders will also contest points.
• Stage 10: Aurillac – Le Lioran (166.6 km, mountain finish): a mountain finish in the Massif Central at the new finish venue Le Lioran, via the new Col de la Griffoul. Breakaway riders can collect points early here.
• Stage 14: Mulhouse – Le Markstein (155.3 km, mountain finish): the Vosges stage with an uphill finish at Le Markstein Fellering. New climbs such as the Col du Page and Col du Haag make this an unfamiliar but demanding mountain menu.
• Stage 15: Champagnole – Plateau de Solaison (183.9 km, mountain finish): the hardest mountain points stage of the first two weeks. The Col de la Croisette (7.7 km at 8.66%) and the final climb Plateau de Solaison (11.52 km at 8.97%) deliver two back-to-back HC or cat.1 climbs. The first Alpine finish of 2026.
• Stage 18: Voiron – Orcières-Merlette (185.2 km, mountain finish): the first heavy Alpine stage of the third week, via the Côte d'Engins (11.9 km at 5.4%) to the mountain finish at Orcières-Merlette. GC riders will force the decision here.
• Stage 19: Gap – Alpe d'Huez (127.9 km, mountain finish): a short explosive stage to the most famous finish in Tour history. Alpe d'Huez (13.8 km at 7.9%, 21 hairpin bends) is climbed for the 33rd time in the Tour.
• Stage 20: Le Bourg d'Oisans – Alpe d'Huez (170.9 km, mountain finish): the Queen stage of 2026 with 5,600 metres of climbing. The Col de Glandon/Croix de Fer, Col du Télégraphe and Col du Galibier (17.7 km at 6.9%, summit at 2,642 m) precede the finish. The first rider over the Galibier wins the Souvenir Henri Desgrange. The Col de Sarenne and Alpe d'Huez via the Sarenne side then follow.

The mountain finishes in stages 3, 6, 10, 14, 15, 18, 19 and 20 also offer GC riders the chance to collect mountain points without needing to be in the breakaway.

Contenders

The polka dot jersey in the Tour de France can go two ways. If the GC battle once again comes down to a duel between Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma-Lease a Bike), one of them will naturally accumulate mountain points through the mountain finishes. Pogačar won the polka dot jersey in 2020, 2021 and 2025, each time combining it with the yellow jersey; Vingegaard did the same in 2022. Both are candidates if they dominate the mountain finish stages.

For classic KOM hunters, this route offers just as many opportunities. Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) won the polka dot jersey in 2024 by deliberately targeting the right breakaways and collecting points at every intermediate climb. The Ecuadorian has proved he has the sustained resilience the KOM classification demands. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) claimed the classification in 2023 in a similar fashion: he is at his best when he can accumulate mountain points over several consecutive days in breakaways. Ciccone is on the 2026 Tour start list and rides without a pronounced GC ambition, giving him the freedom the polka dot jersey requires.

Lenny Martinez (Groupama-FDJ United) is a young climber and an outsider with the right qualities for the breakaway. He already raced at a high level in the Tour mountains in 2025. Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) is an attacker who can handle multiple heavy mountain days in a row and has a nose for the right breakaway. Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5) won solo on Alpe d'Huez in 2022, a climb that features twice as a finish in this route. Especially if Pidcock is given the freedom to go on the attack, he is a serious factor in the mountain points debate.

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