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Tour de France 2026 - stage 6 prediction

Wednesday 8 July 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Thursday 9 July – Tour de France stage 6: Pau → Gavarnie-Gèdre (186.2 km)

Route

Stage 6 of the Tour de France 2026 takes the peloton from Pau to Gavarnie-Gèdre over 186.2 kilometres and 4,100 metres of climbing. This is the first real mountain stage of the race, featuring two major Pyrenean climbs and a first-time finish location.

The first 106 kilometres to Arreau are relatively flat, with two categorised climbs along the way: the Côte de Loucrup (km 50.9; 1.9 km at 7.1%) and the Côte de Mauvezin (km 77.3; 3.0 km at 6.8%). Via Lourdes and Bagnères-de-Bigorre the peloton reaches Arreau, after which the ascent of the Col d'Aspin (km 106; 12.0 km at 6.5%) begins. The Aspin climbs to 1,489 metres altitude, with the toughest kilometre hitting 9.5% in the second half.

Immediately after the descent to Sainte-Marie-de-Campan, the Col du Tourmalet begins (km 130.2; 17.1 km at 7.3%), the hardest climb of the day. From kilometre 10, the gradient consistently runs between 9 and 10 percent. At the summit, at 2,115 metres altitude (km 147.8), the Souvenir Jacques Goddet is awarded to the first rider over the pass. After the summit, a descent of approximately 19 kilometres follows to Luz-Saint-Sauveur. From Luz-Saint-Sauveur (19.8 km from the finish) the final climb begins via the D921: 18.7 kilometres long at an average of 3.7 percent. After passing through Gèdre (8.9 km from the finish), two hairpin bends follow, after which the road runs through the valley towards the Cirque de Gavarnie. Finish at 1,380 metres altitude.

Tour de France 2026 etappe 6 – hoogteprofiel

Tour de France 2026 etappe 6 – routekaart

Final kilometres

After the hairpin bends past Gèdre (8.9 km from the finish), the road runs steadily through the valley to Gavarnie. The final climb has an average gradient of 3.7 percent, with 4.2 percent in the final kilometre. The route is straight, without technical corners or sudden ramps. The finish is at 1,380 metres altitude.

Recent editions

Gavarnie-Gèdre is a first-time finish in the Tour de France. Recent Pyrenean stages via the Tourmalet:

2025 – Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), stage Pau – Luchon-Superbagnères, solo ahead of Pogacar and Vingegaard
2024 – Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates), stage Pau – Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d'Adet, attack in the final km
2023 – Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates), stage Tarbes – Cauterets-Cambasque, solo attack on the final climb
2021 – Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates), stage Pau – Luz Ardiden, attack on the final climb after crossing the Tourmalet
2019 – Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), mountain finish at the top of the Tourmalet, solo attack

Scenarios

The Tourmalet is the pivotal point of this stage. At 17.1 kilometres long with gradients of 9 to 10 percent on the upper slopes, this is the first real test between the GC contenders in the 2026 Tour. Climbers who perform well at altitude and possess a powerful surge in the final kilometres have the best chance of gaining time. Pogacar and Vingegaard meet here for the first time this year in a direct high-altitude mountain confrontation. After the summit of the Tourmalet, a long descent to Luz-Saint-Sauveur follows, succeeded by a final climb of 18.7 km at 3.7 percent. That finale is too long for a purely passive return, but too moderate for explosive attacks. Whoever opens a gap on the Tourmalet will, in a controlled race, hold it to the finish. Breakaway riders with climbing ability can stay in contention if the peloton keeps the stage under control for a long time.

Local

Pau is hosting the Tour de France start for the 68th time and is considered the historic gateway to the Pyrenees. Bruno Armirail (Team Visma Lease a Bike) hails from Bagnères-de-Bigorre, the town at the foot of the Tourmalet on the Sainte-Marie-de-Campan side. The Tourmalet is the most climbed ascent in Tour history, with more than 85 passages since its first crossing in 1910. The Cirque de Gavarnie, near the finish, is inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List and is one of the most striking mountain amphitheatres in the Pyrenees.

Tour de France 2026 stage 6: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Florian Lipowitz

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling