x

Tour de France 2026 - stage 10 prediction

Sunday 12 July 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Listen to the podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts

Get excited for the race with us!

Tuesday 14 July – Tour de France stage 10: Aurillac → Le Lioran (166.6 km)

Route

On Bastille Day, the peloton rides through the heart of the Massif Central. Aurillac is the starting point, Le Lioran the destination: 166.6 kilometres, 3,800 metres of climbing and seven categorised ascents. The stage is a mountain stage with a summit finish.

The first 65 kilometres run over rolling terrain. At km 68, the Côte de Pailherols begins (3.0 km at 7.2%, cat. 3), with its summit at 1,043 metres. This is followed by the Col de la Griffoul (5.9 km at 6.7%, cat. 2, summit at km 97.3). Almost immediately after, the Col de Prat de Bouc begins (3.1 km at 6.5%, cat. 3, summit at km 103.8). After the descent comes the Côte de Murat (5.2 km at 5.3%, cat. 3, summit at km 118.8).

At km 127.9, the Puy Mary – Pas de Peyrol begins (7.8 km at 6.0%, cat. 1). The final 2.2 kilometres ramp up to 8.8%. The summit is at 1,589 metres at km 135.7. After a descent of 8 kilometres, the Col de Pertus follows (4.4 km at 8.5%, cat. 1, summit at km 152.1), with 14.6 kilometres remaining to the finish. The road then descends towards Saint-Jacques-des-Blats. The Col de Font de Cère (3.1 km at 5.8%, cat. 3) closes the sequence with its summit at km 163.9.

Tour de France 2026 etappe 10 - hoogteprofiel

Tour de France 2026 etappe 10 - routekaart

Final kilometres

From the summit of the Col de Font de Cère (km 163.9), the road descends 2.5 kilometres into the valley. The final few hundred metres rise at 6%. The average gradient over the final kilometre is 4.2%. Breakaway riders who reach Font de Cère with a limited gap can hold on. A breakaway sprint or a late solo are both realistic scenarios.

Recent editions

Le Lioran has featured on the Tour de France route twice before. In 2016, Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing Team) won stage 5 from Limoges to Le Lioran in a breakaway sprint ahead of Thomas De Gendt and Rafał Majka. In 2024, Le Lioran was the scene of a talked-about finish: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) caught Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) on the Col de Pertus, after the Slovenian had gone solo on the Puy Mary. The two arrived wheel to wheel, with Vingegaard winning the sprint ahead of Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel. It was Vingegaard's last stage victory over Pogačar at the Tour.

Winners on 14 July (Bastille Day) at the Tour de France: Simon Yates (2025, Team Visma - Lease a Bike), Pogacar (2024, UAE Team Emirates), Michał Kwiatkowski (2023, INEOS Grenadiers), Tom Pidcock (2022, INEOS Grenadiers), Tadej Pogačar (2021, UAE Team Emirates), Daryl Impey (2019, Mitchelton-Scott) and Dylan Groenewegen (2018, Jumbo-Visma). The last French winner on 14 July was Warren Barguil in 2017 (Team Sunweb).

Scenarios

This is a stage for climbers. The Col de Pertus (4.4 km at 8.5%) with its summit 14.6 kilometres from the finish is the decisive point of the finale. Climbers who perform on a short, regular climb and have a finishing sprint in their legs have the best chances here. The gentle summit finish on the Font de Cère and the short descent after it also offer opportunities for climbers with a late punch.

Pogačar and Vingegaard have dominated the Tour classification for years. Together they finished in the top two 17 times in a Tour stage and stood together on the podium 26 times. Le Lioran in 2024 was the last time Vingegaard won a stage ahead of Pogačar. The Dane knows the finish and the roads that lead to it.

Local

Aurillac is the capital of the Cantal department in the Auvergne, situated on the river Jordanne. The Tour de France has visited the city fifteen times, most recently in 2024 as the start of a stage to Villeneuve-sur-Lot. Le Lioran is a ski resort at 1,163 metres altitude in the Massif Central, located in the municipality of Laveisissere. The Puy Mary, the sixth climb of this stage, is one of the prominent peaks of the Cantal massif and is known as the largest stratovolcano in Europe.

Tour de France 2026 stage 10: favourites

The prediction of the 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Kévin Vauquelin

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling